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Ignore the Macro. Follow the Freight. Here’s Where It’s Growing.
This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit ariashe.substack.com
🚛 Freight Pulse Daily — December 10, 2025
Independence & Non-Affiliation Statement
This publication is created solely in my personal capacity and entirely outside my employment with S&P Global and the Journal of Commerce. It is not reviewed, approved, endorsed, supported, or affiliated in any way with S&P Global, the Journal of Commerce, S&P Global Market Intelligence, S&P Global Maritime & Trade, or any other S&P Global division, subsidiary, or business unit.
No proprietary S&P Global data, confidential information, internal research, embargoed material, editorial planning, interviews, systems, models, workflows, tools, or resources are accessed, used, referenced, derived from, or incorporated into this publication.
All content reflects my personal opinions and independent analysis based exclusively on publicly available information.
This publication is not a news product, research product, analytical product, or commercial intelligence product of S&P Global or the Journal of Commerce. It contains no original reporting, sourcing, interviews, investigations, or scoops; it consists solely of commentary and analysis.
This publication does not replicate, substitute for, compete with, or overlap with any S&P Global or Journal of Commerce product, service, dataset, research offering, editorial output, or commercial activity.
Any opinions expressed herein are my own and should not be attributed to S&P Global, the Journal of Commerce, or any of their business units under any circumstances.
🧭 Macro & Market Pulse
The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell 0.3%, extending a multi-month cooling trend. The technical notes show a broad-based decline driven by weaker manufacturing hours, new orders, and consumer expectations—signals that typically lead freight activity by one to two quarters. Importantly, credit conditions and equity markets remain stable, which points to a controlled slowdown, not a recessionary cliff.
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), a product of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), reinforces this “cool but intact” narrative. Total job openings remain near 8.7 million—still higher than pre-COVID norms. Transportation and warehousing openings eased, indicating loosening labor pressure in freight-heavy sectors. Quit rates remain subdued, suggesting workers are holding onto jobs and giving employers more predictability in staffing DCs and driver pools.
Consumer credit is showing a sharp split. According to Equifax, high-income households are spending steadily while lower-income households face rising financial strain. This exposes import-heavy, discretionary categories like furniture and appliances—but leaves essential categories and capital-project freight untouched.
PJT Partners adds a helpful macro wrinkle: even with cooling indicators, companies with strong balance sheets are accelerating capital spending and M&A in logistics-heavy sectors.
Financing remains available for energy, retail expansion, and supply chain automation—reinforcing the idea that CapEx is decoupling from the macro cycle.
Freight Impact → Expect only minor rate movements on broad-based freight through Q1 2026, but continued strength wherever capital spending is driving goods movement.
🔒 SUBSCRIBER-ONLY SECTION (PAYWALL)
The real freight story isn’t in the macro charts — it’s in the companies building, expanding, and rerouting right now.
Below the paywall:
• The retailers driving structural truckload and LTL demand
• How tariff pressure is splitting importers into winners and laggards
• Where port congestion risk is rising
• Why cold storage is soft inland but tight at the coast
• The project cargo boom tied to data centers and the power grid
• The carrier capacity squeeze that will define 2026 pricing
Unlock the freight intelligence that actually moves markets ↓
🚛 Truckload Market
AutoZone continues to build through the macro noise, reporting $4.6 billion in quarterly sales (+8.2%) and domestic commercial sales growing 14.5%. The company is in an aggressive expansion cycle: nearly $1.6 billion in CapEx, 500 new stores per year targeted by FY28, and rapid development of new distribution centers and MegaHubs across the U.S., Mexico, and Brazil.
View all episodes
By Freight PulseThis is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit ariashe.substack.com
🚛 Freight Pulse Daily — December 10, 2025
Independence & Non-Affiliation Statement
This publication is created solely in my personal capacity and entirely outside my employment with S&P Global and the Journal of Commerce. It is not reviewed, approved, endorsed, supported, or affiliated in any way with S&P Global, the Journal of Commerce, S&P Global Market Intelligence, S&P Global Maritime & Trade, or any other S&P Global division, subsidiary, or business unit.
No proprietary S&P Global data, confidential information, internal research, embargoed material, editorial planning, interviews, systems, models, workflows, tools, or resources are accessed, used, referenced, derived from, or incorporated into this publication.
All content reflects my personal opinions and independent analysis based exclusively on publicly available information.
This publication is not a news product, research product, analytical product, or commercial intelligence product of S&P Global or the Journal of Commerce. It contains no original reporting, sourcing, interviews, investigations, or scoops; it consists solely of commentary and analysis.
This publication does not replicate, substitute for, compete with, or overlap with any S&P Global or Journal of Commerce product, service, dataset, research offering, editorial output, or commercial activity.
Any opinions expressed herein are my own and should not be attributed to S&P Global, the Journal of Commerce, or any of their business units under any circumstances.
🧭 Macro & Market Pulse
The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell 0.3%, extending a multi-month cooling trend. The technical notes show a broad-based decline driven by weaker manufacturing hours, new orders, and consumer expectations—signals that typically lead freight activity by one to two quarters. Importantly, credit conditions and equity markets remain stable, which points to a controlled slowdown, not a recessionary cliff.
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), a product of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), reinforces this “cool but intact” narrative. Total job openings remain near 8.7 million—still higher than pre-COVID norms. Transportation and warehousing openings eased, indicating loosening labor pressure in freight-heavy sectors. Quit rates remain subdued, suggesting workers are holding onto jobs and giving employers more predictability in staffing DCs and driver pools.
Consumer credit is showing a sharp split. According to Equifax, high-income households are spending steadily while lower-income households face rising financial strain. This exposes import-heavy, discretionary categories like furniture and appliances—but leaves essential categories and capital-project freight untouched.
PJT Partners adds a helpful macro wrinkle: even with cooling indicators, companies with strong balance sheets are accelerating capital spending and M&A in logistics-heavy sectors.
Financing remains available for energy, retail expansion, and supply chain automation—reinforcing the idea that CapEx is decoupling from the macro cycle.
Freight Impact → Expect only minor rate movements on broad-based freight through Q1 2026, but continued strength wherever capital spending is driving goods movement.
🔒 SUBSCRIBER-ONLY SECTION (PAYWALL)
The real freight story isn’t in the macro charts — it’s in the companies building, expanding, and rerouting right now.
Below the paywall:
• The retailers driving structural truckload and LTL demand
• How tariff pressure is splitting importers into winners and laggards
• Where port congestion risk is rising
• Why cold storage is soft inland but tight at the coast
• The project cargo boom tied to data centers and the power grid
• The carrier capacity squeeze that will define 2026 pricing
Unlock the freight intelligence that actually moves markets ↓
🚛 Truckload Market
AutoZone continues to build through the macro noise, reporting $4.6 billion in quarterly sales (+8.2%) and domestic commercial sales growing 14.5%. The company is in an aggressive expansion cycle: nearly $1.6 billion in CapEx, 500 new stores per year targeted by FY28, and rapid development of new distribution centers and MegaHubs across the U.S., Mexico, and Brazil.