Wednesday, May 6, 2026, Paris

Lots of back and forth today on whether Iran and the US were getting closer to a deal or not. There were reports citing US officials saying that the countries were close to signing a memorandum of understanding that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic and serve as a framework for a broader and more durable deal.

But Iranians denounced the US proposal as an American wishlist that would be quickly rejected. And then President Donald Trump poured cold water on any deal prospects by telling PBS Iran would have to give up all nuclear enrichment and hand its enriched uranium stockpile to the US. He also threatened to bomb the hell out of Iran.

That was followed by Israel launching fresh airstrikes on Lebanon’s capital, blatantly violating a ceasefire agreement imposed by the US.

All this comes ahead of Trump’s big visit to China next week.

Trump would like to meet Xi Jinping from a position of strength. A hot war raging in the Middle East or an extended blockade of the Persian Gulf will make him look week and irresponsible. More likely than not, Trump wants to give the appearance of progress in talks and a resolution to the conflict in an attempt to put lipstick on a pig. He and his handlers want to prettify the mess they created in the Middle East with their typical bluster and fakery.

If there is any move toward escalatory war, it will take place after the Beijing visit.

The tragedy and the comedy is that there is a deal to be made with Iran. The problem is that it will inevitably be a near-facsimile of the one forged by Barack Obama that he ripped up eight years ago.

I spoke about today’s news on NewsX World with host Asuma Kataoka.

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