Infectious disease models shape some of the biggest public health decisions in the world—from vaccine strategy to lockdown timing to hospital surge planning. 

But what do these models actually do? How do SIR models work? Why do forecasts change? And why do so many people misunderstand what a model is supposed to tell us?

In this episode, we break down infectious disease modeling in plain English: the core compartments, the meaning of R0, how calibration works, why assumptions matter, and what these models can—and cannot—predict.

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