This week the Consumer Price Index, the inflation measure that now governs the market, came in higher than consensus at 9.1%. And yet the 10 year treasury yield didn't move. And the equity market chopped sideways.

What do we make of this? According to the high priests of the bond market, we've priced in an even more hawkish Federal Reserve in the near term. And thereby a higher chance of a recession later on. 

In this milieu, the long bond ETF TLT might be forming a bottom. But still the game is patience.