Markets and economies have benefitted from more than three decades of declining interest rates, as central bank inflation-targeting regimes, globalisation and new technologies helped keep goods and services prices in check. It is unlikely that this “great moderation” can continue throughout the 2020s. Stimulatory fiscal and monetary policies remain in place, despite rising inflationary pressures - in the US, at least. Meanwhile, a potential combination of Chinese deleveraging and tighter Federal Reserve policy raises the risk of deflation. Uncertainty around the inflation outlook is at an extreme – yet a view on inflation is a critical input to building portfolios capable of achieving client goals out into the future. - Hayden Briscoe, Joachim Fels, Jonathan Pain. Earn 1.00 CE/CPD hrs on Portfolio Construction Forum