EU Project Chronicles - InnovEU, research and innovation

InnovEU S5E5 – Are Autocracies Winning the Transitions War?


Listen Later

Prepare for the impacts of global transitions on your funding strategy, your projects, and your long-term positioning - and avoid betting on the wrong system.

Watch now.

So - autocracies look faster.

They build infrastructure faster.They mobilize industry faster.They coordinate faster.

But does that mean they perform better across transitions?

The AWTY data says something very different.

In this episode, I unpack one of the most dangerous misreads in innovation and policy design:

Are we mistaking coordination speed for transition success?

Using the AWTY Composite Index (2024 data across 180+ countries), we examine:

* Why democracies score 7.1 on average, while autocracies score 4.9

* Where autocracies actually outperform

* Where democracies dominate in long-term resilience

* Why investors and policymakers systematically misread visible deployment

* How this misperception affects EU-funded projects, industrial strategy, and capital allocation

This is not ideology.

This is about avoiding funding mistakes.

What You’ll Learn in This Episode

1️⃣ The Illusion of Efficiency

Why centralized systems look strong during crises - and why that signal is misleading.

2️⃣ The Five AWTY Transitions

Green.Digital.New Globalization.War Economy.Housing Resilience.

And why winning in one vector does not mean winning the transition.

3️⃣ Decision Autopsies

One clear case where speed masked fragility - and what that means for proposal design and consortium strategy.

If you work with EU-funded projects, innovation ecosystems, industrial policy, or research strategy, this episode will change how you interpret transition data.

Watch or Listen Anywhere

📺 Substack (video):https://fernandocgaspar.substack.com/podcast

📺 YouTube (video):https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLhPsYe80-Wq1bOuVZmZGso_Kr3W8biIpx&si=2fr5iVhGLEwo2F3j

🎧 Spotify (audio):

🎧 Apple Podcasts (audio):

If This Episode Resonates

• Like the podcast on your favorite platform• Subscribe on Substack or any podcast app

• Restack this post to reach more innovators• Comment with your perspective

• Share with colleagues working on EU-funded projects

Follow me on LinkedIn for shorter, sharper insights:https://www.linkedin.com/in/fernandoacgaspar/

Want to be featured on InnovEU?Send me a private message and let’s schedule it.

Go Deeper

📘 My new book:Transition Science In The Economyhttps://a.co/d/c7RoOA4

If you want the full framework behind AWTY and transition decision-making, the book connects Green, Digital, Globalization, War Economy, and Housing into one strategic model.

Build Better Proposals

If you want to win funding under transition uncertainty:

🧠 GPT SmartProposalAITrained on call texts, evaluator guidelines, successful and failed proposals.It helps you align with evaluation criteria, improve clarity, and increase scoring probability.https://rpb.li/YAm2E

🤝 GPT – Build Winning ConsortiaHelps you structure partnerships strategically, avoid weak consortium design, and increase impact credibility.https://payhip.com/b/vEPZd

Because in transitions, speed is visible.

Resilience wins funding.

Let’s build projects that don’t just get funded - projects that survive the transition.



Get full access to Polis Doxa - The Transitions Letter at fernandocgaspar.substack.com/subscribe
...more
View all episodesView all episodes
Download on the App Store

EU Project Chronicles - InnovEU, research and innovationBy Fernando C. Gaspar