Since 2020, the Sahel region of Africa has been buffeted by a series of coups that upended the democratically-elected governments of the region and replaced them with military rulers. First in Mali, which saw the presidency of Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta overthrown in August 2020, and which then witnessed a subsequent May 2021 coup that saw General Assimi Goïta seize power; then in Burkina Faso in January 2022, which saw the overthrow of President Roch Marc Christian Kaboré and then in September of that same year, which saw Captain Ibrahim Traoré seize the reigns of state there; and finally in Niger, where a July 2023 coup d’état overthrew President Mohamed Bazoum and saw General Abdourahamane Tchiani seize power.

Subsequently, the French military, which had participated in a series of counterinsurgency operations against Islamic insurgents, including the Al-Qaeda-affiliated Jama’at Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM), and Islamic State – Sahel Province (ISSP) and elements of Boko Haram, was ordered to leave the three countries. The French were replaced to a large extent by the Russian government proxy force the Wagner Group and now Africa Corps. Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso subsequently withdrew from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and formed the Alliance des États du Sahel (AES). This past September, the three nations also announced that they no longer recognized the International Criminal Court’s jurisdiction and said they want to create “indigenous mechanisms” to replace it. Recently, Jama’at Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin engaged in a show a force around the Malian capital of Bamako, effectively blocking fuel deliveries to the city of 4 million.

To discuss the complex situation in the Sahel, today on Notes from the World we will speak to two experts on the region, Heni Nsaibia, the West Africa analyst for Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) and Yvan Guichaoua, senior research at the Bonn International Center for Conflict Studies.