This month, James Tulloch is joined by Giles Parkinson and Isabel Albarran for a Spring Forecast special, examining how the Chancellor’s latest fiscal update landed against a backdrop of rising geopolitical tension and renewed market volatility (01:45). The team discuss the impact of the Middle East escalation  — from US–Israel strikes on Iran to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz — and how surging oil prices and heightened uncertainty are feeding through to inflation expectations and global markets (05:05). 

They explore the latest bout of AI‑driven volatility, with sharp tech‑sector sell‑offs, growing concerns around disruption, and signs of rotation into value and small‑cap stocks (11:40). Turning to the UK, the conversation assesses a mixed macro picture: soft GDP, easing inflation, rising unemployment and early signs of improving sentiment as PMIs and retail data strengthen (14:00). 

The discussion also covers the Supreme Court’s reversal of Trump‑era tariffs and the fresh legal and policy uncertainty this creates, alongside US labour and inflation data that complicate expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next move (09:33). 

This podcast is brought to you by TrinityBridge – trinitybridge.com – and features James Tulloch, Senior Investment Specialist, in conversation with Giles Parkinson, Head of Equities and Isabel Albarran, Investment Officer. 

We’ve created this podcast to set out possible approaches. Please do not view it as financial advice, or its content as investment recommendations. Just because an investment or an investment strategy has performed well in the past, it does not mean it will continue to do so. Our predictions are based on information that is currently available, however events and markets can and do change rapidly.