As Paris wrestles with political deadlock, questions are mounting over France’s ability to project strength abroad. RFI spoke to author and political strategist Gerald Olivier about the ongoing political crisis in France and its repercussions abroad.

France is once again mired in political turmoil after the National Assembly last week overwhelmingly rejected the revenue side of the 2026 budget.

Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu is trying a new method: rather than attempting to push a full budget through a fractured parliament, he aims to break spending into "absolute priorities" – security, energy, agriculture and state reform – and put each item to MPs separately.

The move is intended to avoid another budget showdown, after two years of governmental instability that have steadily chipped away at President Emmanuel Macron’s authority.

Critics, however, argue that the plan is merely a repackaged version of political improvisation – a delay tactic that risks further weakening France’s credibility at home and on the world stage.

Jean-François Husson, the Senate’s general rapporteur for the budget, delivered one of the sharpest criticisms of Lecornu’s move, describing it as a chaotic and ill-timed intervention.

"If you want to give the French a dizzying ride, you could hardly do it better than this," he remarked, arguing that the government’s approach was generating more confusion than clarity.

For author and political strategist Gerald Olivier, there is a deeper problem.

"France is sick, and France has been sick for a while," he says. "We’re basically looking at a country with no government, no parliamentary majority and a total impossibility for any prime minister to put forward a credible programme."

French lawmakers roundly reject income part of budget bill, send it to Senate

France technically needs to pass its budget by 31 December, but Olivier is quick to point out that this deadline has been missed before. "Last year, the budget wasn’t passed until February," he notes.

If the same thing happens this time, the government can fall back on a temporary financial law that keeps spending aligned with the previous year’s budget for up to 70 days. A more drastic option – to rule by decree – exists as a constitutional backstop.

"This crisis exists because there is no majority in parliament," Olivier says. "And it’s also because no party has had the courage to face the kind of medicine that France needs. That’s the larger issue."

As a major European power, France’s domestic politics do not stay domestic for long. International investors and European Union partners are watching closely, especially after recent warnings from credit-rating agencies about France’s deficit trajectory.

According to Olivier, the damage is already evident. "France is already in a recession, and there are investments simply passing the country by," he argues. "No one knows what its tax status will be in the coming years."

That uncertainty could have a ripple effect across the continent. France, he warns, risks becoming "economically weak and therefore politically weak within Europe", potentially deepening divisions between EU member states.

France’s economy minister warns latest credit downgrade a 'wake-up call'

"The one reassuring piece of news is that France is not the only one in this situation. Germany is in dire shape, Italy is shaky, Sweden is having problems. It seems today that everyone in Europe is the sick man of Europe," he added.

Periods of political instability often attract external opportunists – whether governments, speculators or hostile influence campaigns. But Olivier remains cautious when asked whether foreign actors are already exploiting France’s woes.

"I don’t necessarily see it," he says, "but if you want to consider fictional scenarios, you could find many."

France’s EU membership, he argues, offers a buffer. "Having the EU behind you is reassuring. The idea of ‘Frexit’ would be disastrous. The euro provides protection."

Still, the consequences of weakened governance can extend beyond the economy. A fragile budget could force France to scale back overseas military deployments – a shift that could alter power dynamics in parts of Africa and the Middle East. "This kind of instability is not healthy for anyone," Olivier says.

Macron’s political capital has been in decline since the 2022 legislative elections, when he lost his absolute majority. The surprise dissolution of the Assembly after the 2024 European elections only worsened matters, splitting the parliament into three mutually hostile blocs.

"It’s done tremendous damage to Macron," Olivier says. "He was re-elected in 2022 because people didn’t want Marine Le Pen. He didn’t have the support he had in 2017, and disappointment set in."

He argues that Macron himself triggered the crisis. "He dissolved the Assembly for no reason. The European elections had no influence on French politics, but he reacted as if they did – and he made things worse."

Could the president break the deadlock? In theory, yes. "Macron could solve it instantly by resigning," Olivier notes. "That would trigger a new presidential election, followed by fresh parliamentary elections. That’s how institutions are supposed to function." But he sees no sign that Macron intends to take that step.

For now, he predicts "another 18 months of instability" with the possibility of yet another government reshuffle. "We’ve had four governments in 12 months. We could have a fifth one next year. There is no telling."

France's Le Pen asks Bardella to prepare for 2027 presidential bid

With Macron unable to stand again, attention is already turning to the 2027 presidential race.

The National Rally – headed by Marine Le Pen and her rising protégé Jordan Bardella – enters the campaign in a strong position. Republican Bruno Retailleau could emerge from the right, France Unbowed's Jean-Luc Mélenchon or Socialist Olivier Faure from the left. Names from the centre such as MEP Raphaël Glucksmann and the former prime minister from Macron's Renaissance party, Manuel Valls, have been floated too.

Olivier’s concern is not who the candidates are but how honest they will be about the situation.

"No one is willing to say the country needs to make sacrifices," he warns. "France is in debt up to 115 percent of GDP. Public spending is too high. But nobody wants to tell voters that the social state cannot remain as generous as it is."

He singles out one controversial, far-right figure: "The only person honest about the economic reality is Éric Zemmour – and there is zero chance he will be the next president."

Turkey’s role as a mediator in the Ukraine war is coming under strain as Washington advances its own peace efforts and urges Ankara to loosen its ties with Moscow. The pressure comes as Volodymyr Zelensky met Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara on Wednesday, where Turkey repeated its offer to restart talks with Russia.

Erdogan told reporters alongside Zelensky that Turkey was ready to resume the “Istanbul Process”, the term Ankara uses for earlier talks between Ukraine and Russia.

Since Russia invaded Ukraine, Erdogan has strengthened ties with Vladimir Putin and has said those relations help efforts to end the fighting.

But Sinan Ciddi, of the US think tank the Foundation for Defence of Democracies, said Washington’s latest actions suggest Ankara’s influence is fading.

Ankara’s mediation, he said, had not produced results for either the Trump administration or its Western allies and has done little to move the conflict closer to a ceasefire or peace deal. “Washington is going its own way,” said Ciddi.

US special envoy Steve Witkoff, who is leading Washington’s peace efforts, did not attend the meeting in Ankara despite earlier reports he would.

Some analysts say Ankara overplayed its hand by suggesting it could use its ties with Putin to deliver a summit that never happened.

Israel talks defence with Greece and Cyprus, as Turkey issues Netanyahu warrant

Russia-Turkey expert Zaur Gasimov, of the German Academic Exchange Service, said Ankara’s role has been weakened, with other countries such as Hungary now seen as possible venues for talks.

Donald Trump’s decision to deal directly with Moscow, he added, reduces the need for Turkey as a go-between.

“Russia at the moment is not interested in any kind of peace negotiations with Kiev. But Putin and Moscow are interested in direct negotiations with the United States on this issue and possibly other issues,” Gasimov said, adding that Russia still values its ties with Ankara.

“For Russia, contacts with Turkey are of paramount importance, being isolated by anti-Russian sanctions.”

Turkey ready to help rebuild Gaza, but tensions with Israel could be a barrier

Erdogan has refused to enforce most Western sanctions on Russia, saying his relationship with Moscow is needed to build peace.

But during Erdogan’s September visit to Washington, Trump told him to end imports of Russian energy, which make up around half of Turkey’s needs.

Erdogan appears to be responding, as Russian oil imports have fallen in recent weeks.

Ankara is also trying to strengthen its security ties with the European Union. Direct summits between Putin and Erdogan were once common but are now rare, with their meetings limited to the sidelines of international events.

“There is clearly a move, more effort to restore and bolster relationships with the Western world,” former Turkish ambassador Timur Soylemez told RFI.

Trump tests Turkey's energy dependence on Russia with lure of US power

Soylemez said Ankara will still try to avoid harming its relations with Moscow.

“The view from Ankara is that it’s never a zero-sum game. Actually, the trick is to prevent it from being a zero-sum game. I think that would be an ongoing effort right now,” Soylemez said.

Turkey’s ability to balance both sides, he added, remains important for a long-term peace.

“Turkish diplomacy and Turkey in general have shown there is a role for us to play,” Soylemez said.

“For example, the Black Sea, when it comes to prison exchange, when it comes to de-escalation on different topics. Basically, because we have a channel to both sides and we’re trusted by both sides.”

Turkey is working with its Black Sea NATO partners on mine clearance. Analysts say this could later help secure safe passage for Ukrainian ships under a peace deal.

But the targeting on Monday of a Turkish-flagged ship carrying a gas cargo at the port of Izmail in Ukraine by suspected Russian drones shows the risks Turkey faces as it tries to strengthen relations with Western allies without provoking Moscow.

Israeli-Turkish relations were dealt another blow when a Turkish court issued an arrest warrant on genocide charges against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other senior officials, a move strongly condemned by Israel.

As bilateral relations deteriorate, Israel is stepping up defence cooperation with Turkey's rivals, Greece and the Republic of Cyprus. Turkey has ongoing territorial disputes with both – over maritime and airspace rights in the Aegean Sea, and the division of Cyprus following Turkey's 1974 invasion of the island. The Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus in the north of the island is recognised only by Turkey.

Israeli Diaspora Minister Amichai Chikli claims Israel's deepening partnerships with Athens and Nicosia is aimed at countering the growing threat posed by the Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

"The doctrine of Erdogan is extremely dangerous. It's extremely dangerous for Israel, and we see Erdogan's Turkey as the new Iran, nothing less. It's very dangerous for Cyprus and it's very dangerous for Greece," said Chikli.

This month, Israeli and Greek warships held joint military exercises in the Eastern Mediterranean. The drill followed similar exercises by the country's air forces.

While Ankara played a key role in bringing about a ceasefire in the Gaza war, tensions have continued.

"We saw Turkey issuing arrest warrants against 37 high-level Israelis, but I think it also relates to the fact that the ceasefire is fragile. We are not entirely sure we are moving in a positive direction," said Gallia Lindenstrauss, an Israeli foreign policy specialist at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv.

Turkey ready to help rebuild Gaza, but tensions with Israel could be a barrier

However, Lindenstrauss claims the Gaza ceasefire has opened the door to an acceleration in deepening cooperation with Greece.

"We see the ceasefire is definitely seen as the green light to proceed in cooperation. We see defence deals... serious defence deals are being discussed," she added.

Israeli ministers visited Athens this month for defence talks. Israel has already sold Greece and Cyprus some of its most sophisticated weapons systems, causing alarm in Ankara.

"We see an alignment of the Greek, Greek Cypriot [sic] and Israeli navies. One cannot deny the risk that this will embolden them [Greece and Cyprus]... with Israeli support,” said international relations professor Serhat Guvenc, of Istanbul's Kadir Has University.

Cyprus could become an increasingly focal point for Turkish-Israeli rivalries, given its strategic location. The United Kingdom has two military bases on the island, with the United States having a presence on these. Turkey, meanwhile, has an air base in the soi-disant Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus.

"The island is like a static aircraft carrier; it can dominate the whole of the Middle East and Turkey as well," warns former Erdogan advisor Ilnur Cevik, who is now a journalist.

"A fighter plane that lifts off from Cyprus can get to Ankara in 15 minutes maximum. Turkey wants the island to be a security zone for itself. Plus, the Turks have even thought about setting up a new naval and airbase."

Turkey and Egypt's joint naval drill signals shifting Eastern Med alliances

Turkey's recent purchases of Eurofighter jets, along with a missile development programme encompassing hypersonic and ballistic capabilities, are also fuelling Israeli concerns.

"It's not clear why a status quo actor should have such a missile programme," said Israeli analyst Lindenstrauss.

"For example, Israel doesn't have a missile programme despite the many threats it faces. I think middle and long-range missiles do suggest this is something more related to offensive intentions... I think all actors that have tense relations with Turkey are watching these developments," she added. 

Turkish Cypriot vote could force shift in Erdogan’s approach to divided island

US Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack sought to downplay tensions, dismissing any threat of conflict between Turkey and Israel.

“Turkey and Israel will not be at war with each other. In my opinion, it’s not going to happen. And you are going to get alignment from the Caspian Sea to the Mediterranean," he said, speaking at the International Institute for Strategic Studies Manama Dialogue, a Middle East security forum, on 1 November. 

US President Donald Trump, who retains powerful influence over both governments, regional analysts suggest, could play a key role in managing, if not resolving tensions, given his goal of bringing peace and stability to the region.

"[Washington] are very concerned. This is a topic that gets a lot of people's attention. The United States has certainly been trying to mediate and sort of bring tensions down,” said Asli Aydintasbas of the Washington-based Brookings Institution think tank.

Guvenc doesn't rule out a reset in regional relations, but warns that for now the region remains in the grip of an escalating arms race, fuelilng further mistrust and the risky strategy of "my enemy's enemy is my friend".

"We have partnerships – alliances of convenience, pragmatic, tactically motivated alliances – but you never know. I mean, Turkey and Israel may mend fences, and this may create a totally different strategic, regional geopolitics than the one we are talking about today. So everything is in flux, and the balances and the alliances may shift in a very short time."

Europe’s pursuit of “strategic autonomy” has become more urgent than ever. In this edition of The International Report, Jan van der Made examines how the continent’s defence ambitions continue to be both shaped and constrained by reliance on the United States. With insights from experts Bart van den Berg and Guntram Wolff, the programme considers whether Europe can develop the industries and alliances necessary to stand independently in an uncertain world.

Anti-Turk protests in Montenegro have added to rising tensions between Serbia and Turkey. The unrest was set off by anger over Ankara’s sale of weapons to Kosovo, and growing fears of Turkish influence in the Balkans.

“Turks out!” shouted protesters as they marched through Podgorica, the Montenegrin capital. Several Turkish-owned businesses, among the country’s largest investors, were ransacked during last month’s violence.

The clashes were sparked by a knife attack on a Montenegrin citizen by Turkish nationals.

After the unrest, Montenegro imposed visa requirements on Turkish visitors. Some opposition parties accused Serbia of stoking the protests, pointing to rising friction between Belgrade and Ankara over the arms sale to Kosovo.

“There are those accusing the Serbian region of being behind it,” Vuk Vuksanovic, of the Belgrade Centre for Security Policy, told RFI. “Although I have seen no material evidence.”

While Serbia has not commented on the accusations, it has the capacity to incite such unrest given its strong influence in Montenegro, Vuksanovic said. “The drama involving Montenegro has built up to this difficult atmosphere in Serbian-Turkish relations,” he said.

Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic last month accused Turkey of trying to resurrect the Ottoman Empire through the sale of sophisticated drones to Kosovo, which broke away from Serbia in 1999.

Analysts say the weapons deal could shift the balance of power in the region.

“There are the kamikaze drones, which are posing a threat, and there are also strategic drones likely to be used to secure the border itself and more as a show of force,” said Zoran Ivanov, a security expert from the Institute of National History in Skopje, North Macedonia.

“So it poses a direct security threat to Serbia and Serbia has to react to this.”

Criminalising identity: Turkey’s LGBTQI+ community under threat

The tension marks a sharp turnaround. In recent years, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had built a close relationship with his Serbian counterpart, and Turkish companies became major investors in Serbia.

However the arms sale to Kosovo reveals a shift in Turkey’s relations with Belgrade, explained international relations professor Huseyin Bagci, of Ankara’s Middle East Technical University.

“Turkey has more leverage than Serbia,” Bagci said. “The relations between Turkey and Serbia, we understand each other, but it is not as happy as before.”

Analysts say the shift reflects Ankara’s wider ambitions in the Balkans.

“Ankara is trying to increase its influence and will do it,” said Bagci, adding that Turkey’s historical and cultural ties to the region run deep – with millions of families tracing their roots back to the former Ottoman territories.

“The Ottoman Empire was a Balkan empire. The Turkish influence is getting bigger, and of course, they don’t like it. But Turkey is the big brother in the Balkans.”

Turkish Cypriot vote could force shift in Erdogan’s approach to divided island

Last month, Turkish forces took command of NATO’s KFOR peacekeeping mission in Kosovo. At the same time, Turkish businesses continued expanding across the region.

“They’re expanding their markets; they’re expanding their capabilities; they’re expanding their influence,” Ivanov said.

Turkey’s renewed focus on the Balkans was unsurprising given historical ties, he added. “That’s natural for the Turks to come to invest in the region and now looking for their old roots."

However its expanding presence might feel like history repeating itself, Ivanov warned.

As “a man who is coming from the Balkans,” he said, he sees “the Turks coming as they were in history” – a reminder of a past many in the region have not forgotten.

The European Union has praised Ankara for supporting peacekeeping operations and economic aid in Kosovo. But analysts caution that Turkey must avoid alienating its Balkan neighbours.

“Ankara also has to be mindful of its own limitations of its own Balkan ambitions," Vuksanovic. said. "Because otherwise it can push majority Christian Orthodox nations like the Serbs, Greeks and Bulgarians to work against the Turks if the Turks are perceived to be too provocative or aggressive.”

International human rights groups are calling for the withdrawal of proposed legislation against Turkey’s LGBTQI+ community, who warn that the law could effectively criminalise their community, which is already facing a growing legal crackdown.

This week, the New York-based Human Rights Watch called on the Turkish government to drop a proposed law targeting the country’s LGBTQI+ community. Amnesty International has made a similar demand.

Rights groups sound the alarm

The proposed legislation, which was leaked to the media, criminalises attitudes and actions deemed contrary to biological sex, carrying sentences of up to three years in prison.

“It’s really one of the worst reforms, or proposed reforms, we’ve seen in many years,” warns Emma Sinclair-Webb, Turkey director of Human Rights Watch.

“Because it basically says that the government or the authorities can decide that certain behaviour and attitudes are contrary to biological sex and general morality, and are criminal on that basis.”

Turkey's Pride struggling to survive amid LGBTQ+ crackdown

Widespread impact

Sinclair-Webb claims that with the proposed law criminalising the promotion of the LGBTQI+ community, its impact would be far-reaching.

“That could affect journalists reporting on matters connected with gender, sexuality and gender identity. It could mean NGOs working to defend the rights of LGBTQI+ people from stigmatisation and discrimination.”

Since the foundation of the Turkish Republic in 1923, homosexuality has never been criminalised. But LGBTQI+ rights advocates warn that this could change, given the broadly written nature of the proposed law.

“It’s not even same-sex sexual acts that are criminalised. It’s just your appearance. Because the law says anything against biological sex. I mean, it could be very widely interpreted,” explains Öner Ceylan of Lambda a LGBTQI+ rights group in Turkey

“So, this could be a woman with short hair or wearing trousers,” adds Ceylan. “Let’s say I’m on the streets, I’m being myself, and I can go to jail for it for three months. Then I’m released, and what happens next? I can easily go back to jail according to that law. So it can be a perfect excuse to imprison an LGBTQI+ person.”

Turkey's embattled civil society fears worst as foreign funding dries up

Decade of crackdowns

Under the proposed law, people could face between three months and three years in prison, opening the door to lengthy pre-trial detention and the risk of mass arrests  - a prospect that worries rights groups.

Since the early 2000s, Turkey’s LGBTQI+ community has become increasingly visible and vibrant, particularly in Istanbul, with gay clubs, cafés and bars. The city once hosted large Pride marches, with the 2015 event drawing over one hundred thousand people.

However, for the past decade, Turkey’s religiously conservative government has been cracking down on the community in the name of protecting the family. Pride marches have been banned since 2015.

“Now they’ve banned any kind of LGBTQI+ event in the public sphere,” explains Yıldız Tar of Kaos, an LGBTQI+ group. “We no longer share public venues or their addresses. So we are already living a kind of criminalised life, as if many queer people coming together is a criminal activity, which it is not.”

Tar warns that the proposed law represents the endgame in the government’s campaign. “It’s the result of a decade-long war against LGBTQI+ people, and if this law passes, this is the last step.”

Turkey's embattled civil society fears worst as foreign funding dries up

Rising rhetoric and rising

In September, the Turkish Interior Ministry filed a criminal complaint against openly gay pop singer Mabel Matiz, alleging that one of his songs violated morals and obscenity laws.

Meanwhile, an all-women pop group, Manifest, was detained under the country’s morality laws for one of their performances, prompting the group to end their sell-out national tour.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been ramping up his rhetoric against the LGBTQI+ community, even equating it with terrorism. The proposed legislation also targets the country’s transgender community, banning gender-affirming healthcare for those under the age of 25.

The LGBTQI+ community has vowed to step up its protests against the law and has secured the support of Turkey’s two main opposition parties in opposing it. But Tar warns that if the law passes, many in the community will likely flee the country -  though he says he and others are ready to resist, whatever the cost.

“We will continue to do our work, to share the very basic knowledge that being LGBTQI+ is not a threat to society. It’s not a threat to the family,” declares Tar. “But it will be harder, and most of us will end up in jail.”

The landslide defeat of Turkey's ally in the Turkish Cypriot elections could now force President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to drop his push for a permanent partition of Cyprus and boost efforts to reset ties with the European Union.

Securing 63 percent of the vote, Tufan Erhurman’s victory in last weekend's election took Erdogan by surprise.

“The defeat was so big, 63 percent was such a landslide, Ankara was really shocked,” said former Erdogan advisor Ilnur Cevik.

Erhurman’s Republican Turkish Party backs a united island. Erdogan supported incumbent Ersin Tatar, whose National Unity Party wants two separate states.

“Ankara had amassed all its political clout on the island," Cevik added. "It had sent its vice president five times to the island; it had sent numerous delegations led by deputies and mayors.”

It failed to win Turkish Cypriots over because “the essence of it was Turkey’s interference, which created huge resentment among the Turkish Cypriots”, Cevik said.

Cyprus has been split since Turkey invaded in 1974. Erdogan had pushed for international recognition of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, recognised only by Ankara.

Turkey ready to help rebuild Gaza, but tensions with Israel could be a barrier

Analysts say Erhurman’s win has dealt a final blow to Erdogan’s two state strategy for Cyprus.

“The two independent states idea was dead on arrival, and now it's officially dead,” said Soli Ozel, of Kadir Has University’s International Relations Department.

He said Erdogan’s reaction to the election points to a change in approach.

“President Erdogan's message of congratulations to [Erhurman] suggests at least for the moment he's ready to turn the page on that.”

Erdogan’s stance is very different to that of his coalition partner Devlet Bahceli, who called for the result to be overturned and for the north of the island to be integrated with Turkey.

Former Turkish ambassador Selim Kuneralp said the election gives Erdogan a chance to drop a policy that has become a growing obstacle to improving EU defence relations.

Turkey and Egypt's joint naval drill signals shifting Eastern Med alliances

Cyprus has long blocked Turkey’s hopes of deeper EU defence cooperation and access to a 150 billion euro arms programme known as SAFE.

“So far, everything has been blocked by the Cyprus problem,” said Kuneralp, adding that the election result offers a rare opening.

“Now you've got these election results that open a small window. So that's why the present situation might not be so bad for Erdogan.”

European governments see Turkey as an important partner in defending themselves against Russia.

A shift to unification talks could suit both sides, analyst Soli Ozel said.

“Given Russia's proclivities, it makes sense for [Turkey] to be part of SAFE. And it doesn't make sense for the Europeans because of the Greek and Greek Cypriot opposition to leaving Turkey out,” he said.

Erdogan’s Washington visit exposes limits of his rapport with Trump

EU leaders have new priorities that could help clear a path.

“The European Union is no longer the European Union of our grandmothers; the issues of human rights and rule of law no longer count for anything," Ozel said. 

"That's a relation that is cleared of its thorns.”

Turkey’s backsliding on democracy has long held back cooperation with Brussels. Human rights is not expected to feature much during German Chancellor Frederick Mertz’s visit to Ankara later this month.

Deepening defence ties is set to top the agenda, but how far Erdogan supports unification could decide his next steps with the EU.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan says Turkey wants to take part in rebuilding Gaza and is ready to join a peacekeeping force once the fighting ends, however analysts warn strained relations between Ankara and Tel Aviv could stand in the way. 

Turkey responded to a call from Hamas for assistance with locating the bodies of Israeli hostages still unaccounted for in the ruins of Gaza, sending specialists to help in the search.

Ankara maintains close ties with Hamas, which some analysts say could make it a useful mediator – although strained relations with Israel could stand in the way of any peacekeeping or reconstruction mission, despite Turkey's experience in these areas.

“Turkey does have expertise for this – it has a doctrine,” said Murat Aslan of the SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research, a pro-government think tank.

“In Afghanistan, Bosnia, some African countries like Somalia or Sudan, and in Kosovo, Turkey contributed either through its Tika aid agency, responsible for reconstruction, or through its armed forces.”

Aslan believes Turkey’s approach would be similar in Gaza. “Turkey will send soldiers for sure, for the protection of the civilian units,” he said.

Hamas says committed to Gaza truce and returning hostage remains

However, others warn the mission would not be easy.

“Turkey can become part of this protection force, but it will not be easy. At the moment it seems more problematic than many people assume,” said Huseyin Bagci, an international relations professor at Ankara’s Middle East Technical University.

Bagci fears Gaza could slide into chaos as rival groups fight for control.

“There are fights between Hamas and the clans,” he said. “It will not be easy because Hamas has to give up its weapons, which is the primary condition. Hamas is not 100 percent trusting Turkey – if not, Israel will probably act.”

Turkey and Egypt's joint naval drill signals shifting Eastern Med alliances

Any Turkish deployment would also require Israel’s consent, which appears unlikely given the collapse in relations between the country's leaders.

Erdogan and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have regularly traded insults since the start of the current conflict in Gaza, and Ankara’s vocal support for Hamas has further deepened mistrust.

Israeli analysts say the government is hesitant to allow Turkish troops in Gaza, citing deep tensions and mistrust between the two countries.

Gallia Lindenstrauss of the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv said there is little enthusiasm for involving a Muslim peacekeeping force, as any casualties could inflame anger across the Muslim world and worsen relations.

“This conflict in Gaza has heightened tensions between Turkey and Israel, particularly between the two leaders,” she added.

Any Turkish role in Gaza would likely need US backing to move forward, given Israel’s resistance, observers warn.

Aslan believes Washington could help bridge the divide. “Erdogan does have a charming power over Hamas,” he said.

“So it’s on Turkey to urge Hamas to accept some things, and it’s on the United States to push Israel to accept the terms of a long-term peace. I believe that Trump is well aware of it, because there is no trust of Israel. That’s a fact, not only for Gazans or Palestinians or Turks, but [across the world] overall.”

Aslan says trust would be essential to persuading Hamas to disarm. “I believe Hamas will lay down their arms when they feel safe, and they have to see friendly faces in Gaza to be persuaded."

Erdogan’s Washington visit exposes limits of his rapport with Trump

Turkish involvement in Gaza could also help pave the way for a reset in relations between Ankara and Tel Aviv.

Bagci believes Erdogan is hoping for political change in Israel to make that possible. “There will be elections,” he said. “Erdogan [is counting on] Netanyahu losing. But if he wins, then he has to deal with him because both sides have to be pragmatic and realistic.”

Bagci said much of the fiery rhetoric from both men is aimed at domestic audiences, with both having reputations as political survivors and pragmatists.

If peace efforts gain ground, observers say cooperation in Gaza could offer a path towards rebuilding trust – and serve both countries as they compete for regional influence.

(with AFP)

In this edition of International Report, RFI talks with David Ondracka, former president of Transparency International Czech Republic, about the country’s recent parliamentary elections.

Populist billionaire Andrej Babiš has swept back into power after voters, frustrated by unfulfilled promises and a stagnant quality of life, turned their backs on the centre-right government.

According to Ondračka, Babiš’s resurgence reflects deep public disillusionment with the political establishment - alongside his skill as a pragmatist who “tells people whatever they want to hear.”

While Brussels voices unease over his return, Ondračka argues that Babiš is neither aligned with Moscow nor guided by ideology.

Instead, he describes him as a tycoon whose loyalties lie squarely “where the money is” - inside the European Union.

Czech populist's comeback a win for politics of pragmatism in shifting Europe

As the Czech Republic enters coalition talks and joins Hungary, Slovakia and Poland in navigating a shifting political landscape, Ondračka warns that Europe’s populist wave is far from receding, continuing to test the strength of the liberal centre.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is facing growing pressure from Washington to cut Turkey’s heavy dependence on Russian oil and gas – and end his long-standing balancing act between Moscow and the West.

Erdogan said this week that Turkey would work with the United States on civil nuclear energy, in a new signal to Washington that Ankara is looking west for its energy needs.

Turkish companies last month signed a 20-year, multibillion-dollar deal with American firms to buy liquefied natural gas.

The agreement came during Erdogan’s visit to Washington to meet US President Donald Trump in late September. During that meeting, Trump urged Erdogan to reduce ties with Moscow and end Turkey’s reliance on Russian oil and gas.

“In a sense, he [Trump] is offering a grand bargain to Erdogan,” said Asli Aydintasbas of the Washington-based Brookings Institution.

She summed up the deal: “Stop the hedging, stop the stuff with Russia, stop the geopolitical balancing, and then let’s re-establish the partnership, and then we can move along and can really become key partners in the region.”

Turkey walks a tightrope as Trump threatens sanctions over Russian trade

Trump often praises Erdogan as a “friend”, but the US leader has shown he is willing to use economic pressure. During his first term, he triggered a collapse in the Turkish lira over the jailing of an American pastor.

He could again target Ankara with secondary sanctions if Turkey keeps importing Russian energy.

Russian fossil fuels still provide nearly half of Turkey’s total energy. Zaur Gasimov, a Russian-Turkish expert with the German Academic Exchange Service, said Europe’s experience shows how costly a sudden break with Moscow could be.

“It was the case with some Western European countries in 2022 that caused an augmentation of the prices,” said Gasimov. “And the Turkish economy is struggling with inflation that would immediately and heavily affect the life of the average citizen. No party power in Turkey would take such a decision.”

Ankara has ruled out ending its Russian energy contracts, but oil imports from Russia have fallen to their lowest levels in a year.

Some gas deals, signed decades ago, are due for renewal. Analysts say Turkey may use that moment to slowly cut its dependence on Moscow – a move that would deal a serious blow to Russia, which now relies on Turkey as its last major European gas customer.

Druzhba pipeline: dependence, diplomacy and the end of Russian leverage in Europe

Energy trade has long been at the heart of Erdogan’s personal relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The partnership has survived the war in Ukraine, despite the fact Turkey also supplies arms and support to Kyiv.

Turkey’s balancing act helps keep regional rivalries under control, said Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, who heads the Marshall Fund office in Ankara.

“Turkey and Russia have been fighting proxy wars in the Caucasus, in North Africa, in the Levant,” he said. “Turkey is getting the upper hand in the end. But Turkey could still manage its relationship with Russia.”

Unluhisarcikli added that Ankara would want guarantees from the West before distancing itself from Moscow, since "it would have security implications on Turkey".

Turkey would have to be "certain" that it would be welcomed back to Europe and have assurances from the United States, he suggested.

Erdogan spoke with Putin by phone this week, though such contacts have reportedly become less frequent as their once-close relationship cools.

Ankara remains aware of the risks: when Turkey accidentally shot down a Russian bomber near the Syrian border in 2015, Putin responded with sanctions that hit Turkish exports and tourism, and several Turkish soldiers in Syria were later killed in what Moscow called an accident.

Turkey eyes Ukraine peacekeeping role but mistrust clouds Western ties

With Russia weakened by sanctions and isolation over its war in Ukraine, analysts say its influence on Turkey is diminishing.

“It is the window to Europe. It is a way to the outside world," Gasimov says. "The number of flights to Turkey is getting bigger and bigger.

“For Russia, Turkey remains a very, very important partnership. So the leverage Moscow once possessed over Ankara is getting less and less.”