Turkish-backed forces have launched a new offensive against Kurdish fighters in Syria following the collapse of the Assad regime.

The Syrian National Army, supported by Turkish air power, is pushing against the US-supported People's Defense Units (YPG), which Ankara claims is linked to the Kurdistan Workers' Party, the PKK, which has been fighting Turkey for decades. 

The YPG controls a large swathe of Syria bordering Turkey, which Ankara says poses a security threat.

Turkish foreign minister Hakan Fidan says Turkey is determined to prevent the YPG and its affiliate the PKK from exploiting a power vacuum following the fall of former Syrian president Bashar al-Assad.

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"We are in communication with the groups to make sure that terrorist organisations, especially Daesh [Islamic State] and the PKK, are not taking advantage of the situation," he said. "Turkey is committed to continuing the fight against terrorism. All minorities – non-Muslims, Christians, non-Arabs, Kurds – should be treated equally."

Opportunity for Ankara

Ever since the YPG took over control of the Syrian territory at the beginning of the Syrian civil war, Ankara has been seeking to remove it. 

With the ousting of the Assad regime and the withdrawal of its Iranian and Russian backers, which had in the past blocked Turkish military interventions, analysts say Ankara now sees an opportunity to finally remove the YPG threat.

"The current situation creates an opportunity for its [Turkey's] fight against PKK and YPG because there is now no Russia, there is no Iran," explains Bilgehan Alagoz, a professor of international relations at Istanbul's Marmara University.

"Turkey was facing the Russian forces, the Iranian forces, and Assad's regime forces while it was combatting the PKK and YPG," she added. "We can name it as an opportunity for its fight against PKK and YPG."

Success of rebel groups in Syria advances Turkish agenda

However, the YPG is still being supported by a small US military force, as part of the war against the Islamic State (IS). The YPG is also detaining thousands of IS militants.

'The Euphrates is a line'

With the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army now approaching the Euphrates River, analysts say further eastward advances could put Ankara on a collision course with both Washington, and Syria's new rulers – Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS. 

"The Euphrates now is like a line perhaps for the US military," explains Aydin Selcen, a former senior Turkish diplomat who served in the region and is now a foreign policy analyst for Turkey's independent Medyascope news outlet.

"If that [military advance] goes on as such, it could bring Turkey indirectly head to head with the US, with even perhaps HTS, and it could put Ankara in a delicate diplomatic position again," warned Selcen.

Tensions with Israel

The Israeli military's advance into Syria is adding to Ankara's concerns over the threat posed by the PYG and its political wing, the Democratic Union Party (PYD). Israeli foreign minister Gideon Saar last month described the Kurds as a "natural ally" of Israel, a comment that came amid growing Israeli-Turkish tensions.

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"Israel is now carving out a corridor [in Syria] between the PKK/PYD-controlled territories, and its own territories," explained Hasan Unal, a professor of international relations at Ankara's Baskent University.

"That suggests that this is what they [Israel] are trying to do – [to create] a Kurdish puppet state east of the Euphrates. And this is something that is likely to create lots of problems with Turkey," he added.

With Israel's presence in Syria, Ankara is likely to step up pressure on the YPG, and on the incoming Trump administration to end US military presence in Syria.

As the Israel-Hamas conflict continues, a collection of films titled From Ground Zero, created by Gaza-based filmmakers, has earned a place at the Oscars.

The project, overseen by Palestinian filmmaker Rashid Masharawi, includes 22 short films spanning documentary, animation, and drama.

The films aim to share the voices of people living through the conflict in Gaza, offering a glimpse into their fears, dreams and hopes.

"The idea for From Ground Zero came immediately, in the second month of this ongoing war, to try to pick up films and stories from Gaza," Masharawi told RFI.

He explained that the goal was to give filmmakers in Gaza the chance to make their own films.

As a recent report from Reporters Without Borders (RSF) underlines the toll of the war on Palestinian journalists, RFI spoke with him and his team in Paris.

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The shorts, ranging from three to six minutes, are "a mix between fiction, documentaries, video art and even experimental films," he said.

"We are filmmakers, we are dealing with cinema. Even if it's a catastrophe, it's very tough with all the massacres. But we were also trying to make cinema, to add life, to be optimistic and to add hope."

The 112-minute collection is presented as a feature film in two parts. Contributors include Reema Mahmoud, Muhammad Al Sharif, Tamer Nijim and Alaa Islam Ayou.

From film festivals to the Oscars

After premiering at the Toronto Film Festival in September, From Ground Zero toured film festivals across Europe, North Africa and South West Asia in November and December.

Screenings have taken place at the French Arab Film Festival near Paris, the Bristol Palestine Film Festival and in London. Additional showings are scheduled for Morocco and Egypt.

Earlier this year, Masharawi held an outdoor screening of the film during the Cannes Film Festival to protest its exclusion from the event.

Now, the collection has been selected to represent Palestine at the Oscars in March 2025, with hopes of a wider release in the United States, Europe and the Middle East.

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Emerging voices

The project was made possible by the Masharawi Fund for Gaza Filmmakers, launched in November 2023 to support creative talent from the territory.

Masharawi, who is from Gaza, is one of the first Palestinian filmmakers to have directed cinema projects in the occupied Palestinian territories.

His first film, Travel Document, was released in 1986, followed by The Shelter in 1989 and Long Days in Gaza in 1991.

The executive producer of the film, Laura Nikolov, who is French and based in France, is travelling with Masharawi to promote the film around the world.

"It's a very unique project," she told RFI. "We have now translated it into 10 different languages. We made this to allow the voices of the Gazan people [to be heard] and it's working. I think we've reached more than 60, perhaps 80 screenings and festivals."

With its selection for the Oscars, Nikolov is hopeful that the film will reach even wider audiences.

"This means it will be shown in cinemas in the United States," she said, adding that they hope to expand its reach across Europe and the Middle East.

Ankara, one of the principal backers of some of the Syrian rebels who ousted President Bashar al-Assad, is being seen as a winner in the overthrow of the Assad regime. However, analysts warn much of the success of the operation will depend on whether a stable government emerges.

This dramatic end to the Assad family's half-century rule over Syria marks a significant shift in the region's balance of power, with analysts predicting that Turkey’s influence in Syria could now grow at the expense of its regional rivals.

"Turkey emerged… by proving its relevance, importance and its strength… out of these latest developments in Syria… as the clean, clear winner," says Aydin Selcen, a former senior Turkish diplomat who served in the region and is now a foreign policy analyst for Turkey's independent Medyascope news outlet.

"And Iran is definitely the loser. And Russia also is pushed aside."

Success of rebel groups in Syria advances Turkish agenda

The Turkish-backed Syrian National Army played a role in the overthrow of Assad. However, it was the radical Islamist group Hayat Tahir Al Sham – or HTS – that led the offensive. And that, analysts say, will be a cause for apprehension in Ankara.

"Despite all the jubilation of the Turkish press and the government and the circles that support the government about the collapse of the Assad regime in general, I would think there is some uneasiness," says Hasan Unal, professor of international relations at Ankara's Baskent University.   

"I can see it through lots of problematic issues that would be coming out of what's going to happen," he added, "because of the ideological Islamist leanings of the incumbent government and… the Islamic jihadist terrorist groups associated with it."

Support and protection

However, Turkey may not be entirely without influence over Syria's new Islamist leaders. For years, it provided support and protection to the Idlib region of Syria, where HTS was based. 

Analyst Aydin Selcen suggests Ankara could retain significant influence if recent statements by HTS leadership calling for an inclusive Syrian government are honoured.  

"If pragmatism prevails, that's perhaps where Turkey and Ankara may come in. And also Ankara definitely will be viewed as a positive outside contributor by these new Syrian rulers, because of the fact that we here in Turkey are hosting over 5 million Syrians and also that Turkey helped protect Idlib."

Turkish foreign minister Hakan Fidan, addressing an international conference in Doha last Sunday, 8 December, said that Turkey is committed to helping secure a politically inclusive new Syria. 

Turkey's Syrian refugees 

A stable Syria is also key to Ankara's goal of sending home millions of Syrian refugees now living in Turkey. Public resentment over their presence has grown, as the country has grappled with an economic crisis over the past few years.

However, such a return may not be simple, predicts Sezin Oney, a commentator on Turkey’s independent Politikyol news site.

"The refugees, the Syrians you have in Turkey, are mostly women and children. So it has to be a [new Syrian] government, an administration, friendly to women and children, especially women."

"But we don't know if these Islamic jihadist groups will be really friendly towards these groups," he added.

"There might be a Taliban 2.0 arising just across the border; we don't know what kind of administration HTS and surrounding groups will be. It's a big security risk; I don't see Syria settling down to become a safe clash-free place." 

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For now, Erdogan is celebrating the overthrow of Assad as a Turkish triumph, with European leaders and Washington queuing up to speak to him as Turkey positions itself as a key player in shaping Syria's future.

But the sudden demise of the Assad regime underscores how quickly fortunes can change in the region, and the future of Syria – and Turkey's role in it – are today more uncertain than ever. 

The capture of Syria's major cities by rebel groups Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and the Syrian National Army, fighting against the forces of President Bashar al-Assad, offers Turkey the opportunity to achieve its strategic goals in the country.

The lightning offensive of Islamist militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army, which has seen the rebels capture several major Syrian cities in less than two weeks, gives Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan leverage over his Syrian counterpart President Bashar al-Assad.

"Turkey can easily stop both [rebel] entities and start a process. Turkey does have this strength, and Assad is well aware of it," said Murat Aslan of the SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research, a Turkish pro-government think tank. 

Until now, Assad has rejected Erdogan's overtures for dialogue to end the civil war peacefully. "The Turkish intention politically is not to escalate in Syria [but to] start a political, diplomatic engagement with the Assad regime, and come to the terms of a normal state, and that all Syrians safely return to their homes," Aslan noted.

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Syrian refugees an issue

Erdogan is seeking to return many of the estimated 4 million Syrian refugees living in Turkey, amid growing public unease over their presence in the country.

"According to the opinion polls here, yes, the Syrian refugees [are] an issue. For any government, it would be a wonderful win to see these Syrians going back to Syria of their own will," explained Aydin Selcen, a former senior Turkish diplomat who served in the region and is now a foreign policy analyst for Turkey's Medyascope news outlet.

However, Moscow has a lot to lose in Syria, as a key military backer of Assad, who in turn has granted Russia use of a key Syrian naval base. "For Moscow, it's of crucial importance that the personality of Assad remains in power," said Zaur Gasimov, a professor of history and a Russia specialist at the University of Bonn.

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Gasimov warns that Turkey could be facing another humanitarian crisis. "Russia would definitely use the military force of its aerospace forces, that can cause a huge number of casualties among civilians. Which means a new wave of migrants towards Turkish eastern Anatolia."

With more than a million Syrian refugees camped just across the Turkish border in the rebel-controlled Syrian Idlib province, analysts warn a new exodus into Turkey is a red line for Ankara.

"If they refresh their attacks on the captured areas by indiscriminate targeting... well [we can] expect further escalations in the region," warned Aslan of the pro-government SETA think tank. "And for sure there is a line that Turkey will not remain as it is, and if there is a development directly threatening the interests or security of Turkey, then Turkey will intervene."

Pushing back the YPG

With the Syrian rebel offensive also making territorial gains against the US-backed Kurdish militant group, the YPG, Ankara is poised to secure another strategic goal in Syria. Ankara accuses the YPG of having ties to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which is fighting the Turkish state.

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"Without putting up a fight, and without getting directly involved, they [Ankara] have achieved one of their goals – for YPG to pull back from the Turkish frontier towards the south," explained Selcen. "I think Ankara now is closer to that goal."

With Syrian rebel successes appearing to advance Ankara's goals in Syria, some analysts are urging caution, given the rebels' links to radical Islamist groups. "The crashing down of the Assad regime is not in the interest of Turkey, because there will be chaos," warned international relations professor Huseyin Bagci, of Ankara's Middle East Technical University.

"Who is going to rule? What type of [governing] structure are we going to have?" he asked. "They are radicals, and another Daesh-style territory would not be in the interest of Turkey – in Turkish prisons, there are thousands of Daesh people."

Turkey is positioning itself as a key player in efforts to secure a Gaza ceasefire, despite its close ties with Hamas, which have drawn criticism from Washington. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has vowed to "make every contribution" to end what he called the "massacre" in Gaza.

US President Joe Biden signalled this week that Turkey could have a role in mediating peace in the Middle East.

"The United States will make another push with Turkey, Egypt, Qatar, Israel and others to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza," Biden told reporters.

However, US officials have downplayed Turkey’s mediating role due to Ankara’s ties to Hamas.

"We don't believe the leaders of a vicious terrorist organisation should be living comfortably anywhere, and that certainly includes in ... a major city of one of our key allies and partners," US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said earlier.

Hamas tensions

Hamas leaders reportedly relocated to Turkey after the collapse of ceasefire efforts in November.

Erdogan, a staunch supporter of Hamas, has described the group as a "liberation movement". Following the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, Erdogan declared a national day of mourning.

"There are rumours, and I don’t know how true they are, that many of those people have actually received Turkish citizenship as well," Soli Ozel, a lecturer at the Institute for Human Studies in Vienna told RFI.

In a move seen as an attempt to placate Washington, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan stated that there are no plans for Hamas to open a political bureau in Turkey.

Turkish presidential adviser Mesut Casin defended the policy: "Ankara will continue its position hosting Hamas number one. Number two, they will continue dialogue with Hamas in order to establish peace".

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Complex ties

Despite tensions between Turkey and Israel, they maintain back-channel communication.

In November, the head of Israel’s intelligence agency Shin Bet met his Turkish counterpart in Ankara. The meeting reportedly centred on the plight of Israeli hostages held by Hamas.

"We have 101 hostages that are still, we don’t know their fate," says Gallia Lindenstrauss, an Israeli foreign policy specialist at the Institute for National Security Studies.

"There are attempts to at least receive information about who’s alive, who’s dead, who’s holding them – Hamas or Islamic Jihad."

Lindenstrauss cautioned that Israel remains sceptical of Turkey’s ability to act as a neutral mediator.

"It would be very hard for Israel in general and specifically Prime Minister Netanyahu to trust Turkey to be a mediator that will be respectful to both sides," she said.

While Erdogan’s public rhetoric often inflames tensions, analysts say Turkish-Israeli relations are shaped more by pragmatism than politics.

"Turkey and Israel have one way of dealing with one another in public and another way of dealing with one another diplomatically and in security cooperation," Ozel explains.

In a possible effort to build trust, Turkish authorities recently extradited three Uzbek suspects linked to the murder of an Israeli rabbi in the United Arab Emirates.

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Challenges remain

As Israel intensifies its military campaign against Hamas, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has rejected a Gaza ceasefire for now.

"The reason for having a ceasefire is to separate the fronts and isolate Hamas," Netanyahu said Tuesday.

"From day two of the war, Hamas was counting on Hezbollah to fight by its side. With Hezbollah out of the picture, Hamas is left on its own. We will increase our pressure on Hamas."

Despite Ankara’s overtures, Israel has warned that Hamas leaders are not safe from targeting, even in Turkey.

"They will find these Hamas leaders and target them wherever they find them," Lindenstrauss maintains.

In Turkey, hundreds of new producers are growing the country's wine industry, and its international reputation – despite increasing taxation and controls by President Erdogan's religious, conservative government.

Grapes have been grown for centuries in Manisa, western Turkey. It is here that Fulya Akinci and her Spanish husband, Jose Hernandez Gonzalez, decided they wanted to be a part of the transformation of the country's wine industry.

"In 2005, in 2006, maybe when you went to a restaurant, you would order red wine or white wine, that was it," explains Akinci. "In the last 15 years, there has been a real boom. We have so many, we say, boutique wineries. Now, with these small wineries, the quality has changed a lot."

With their wine label Heraki, Akinci and Hernandez Gonzalez are part of this surge of new, small producers – a group which has grown to number around 200, from only a handful a decade ago. The couple trained at a wine school in Bordeaux and have worked in vineyards around the world. Hernandez Gonzalez explained that it was Turkey's untapped potential that persuaded him and Akinci to produce their own wine there.

"As a foreigner, when I came to Turkey I was really surprised about the biodiversity of different grape varieties," he said. "This is a country with many different grape varieties. Also, [there was] the potential of the soils and the climate. We have mountains, we have the coasts – many different climates to make grapes. And the potential of those grapes to make wine is huge."

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Government restrictions

Hernandez Gonzales explained that rather than making wine from vines used worldwide, they decided to use indigenous grapes. "One of our main ideas here at Heraki was to make wines from those local grapes."

In five years, their production has increased from a couple of thousand to 20,000 bottles. But the couple says this has been an uphill struggle. "We have some difficulties because of the bureaucracy – so much paperwork – and some pressures over tax... so huge pressures on us. It's not easy at all," explained Akinci.

Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AK), which enjoys large support among Muslims, has, since coming to power in 2002, hiked alcohol taxes to 65 percent, among the highest in the world. There are also growing restrictions on wine production, sales and advertising. "We love making wine, but it's not easy at all. It's hard, and every day is getting worse and worse," said Akinci.

Turkey's broadcasting authorities banned images of alcohol on television back in 2013, and in much of the country securing alcohol licences is difficult.

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But meanwhile, government adverts promoting Turkey as a tourist destination abroad often highlight the country's wines as an attraction. With much of the wine industry based in tourism centres, experts say tourists are helping to drive demand and grow the reputation of Turkish wines.

International interest

"Wine producers have started to get better prices for their wines. They can now make money, against all the odds. There is international interest," said wine consultant Sabiha Apaydın Gonenli. Through her Kok Koken Toprak Conference (Root Soil Wine Conference) international symposiums, she promotes Turkey's wine industry internationally.

However, she warns the industry still has a long way to go. "It's not that economically viable at the moment because it is very small. In order to market this, you need support. You can't do this alone, wine producers need to come together."

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As for Heraki wines, they are now being stocked at a top European restaurant and have secured a German distributor. But despite such successes, Akinci says wine-making in Turkey remains a bittersweet experience.

"One day, we are so happy to make wine here, and we are thinking about increasing the volume and making other things. Then another day, we're thinking about closing up and going to Spain."

The banning of an Istanbul-based independent radio station has sparked political condemnation and protests in Turkey. With a mission to bridge the country's cultural divides over the last 30 years, Acik Radio's closure is seen as part of the government's attempts to tighten its grip on the media.

Turkey's media regulator, RTUK, revoked the station's licence, claiming it had failed to comply with an earlier fine and suspension.

That order came after a guest earlier this year referred to the 1915 killings of Armenians by Turkey's then-Ottoman rulers as a genocide.

RTUK ruled that the comment incited public hatred. While Acik did pay the fine, it didn't come off air, saying it was appealing the initial ruling in court.

The revocation of its broadcasting licence has drawn international condemnation and alarm. "Acik Radio has always adopted a moderate language, reflecting various political views," Erol Onderoglu, the Turkey representative for Paris-based media watchdog Reporters Without Borders (RSF) told RFI. 

Onderoglu warns that banning Acik is part of a wider trend in the country of "eliminating media pluralism and weakening remaining minority voices". He continued: "It is in line with a political mission to impose a single official view on society, what they call national and patriotic journalism."

'Cultural hub'

In Istanbul's Kadikoy district, listeners have been chanting in protest over Acik Radio's removal from the airwaves.

Elif Unal, an avid listener, said the station has been an important part of everyday life for a long time. "They ban everything that makes us smile, that makes us feel happy," she said. "Most of the people in Istanbul, across Turkey, open their eyes listening to Acik Radio. Acik Radio is important because it's a cultural hub and also a political supporter of many organisations, NGOs and activists."

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Protestor Mete Atature said he grew up listening to Acik. "Whichever programme you are listening to, you'll learn something. Not like a lecture, not like an education programme, but there's always something it leaves you with, and I miss that."

He added: "From one side, of course, it's a shock. From another side, it's not unexpected, given the way the whole country is going. There is less and less free speech, and there's more oppression, and this is another example."

Diverse voices

Since its launch in 1994, Acik Radio has sought to bridge Turkey's deep cultural and political divides. Volunteers produce and present social and cultural programmes that represent the country's diverse population, including minorities.

Yetvart Danzikyan hosted Acik's show "Radio Agos," a programme aimed at Turkey's Armenian minority.

"We tried to make the unheard voices of not only the Armenian community but also all the other minorities, the Greek, Jewish, and Suryani communities," he said, adding that they were trying to bring even more unheard voices to the station's programmes.

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Turkey's main opposition parties are supporting the station, and say the closure is a government attempt to further tighten its grip on the country's media.

For now, Acik has returned to broadcasting via the internet, securing a licence under the new name of APACIK Radio. 

But those who run the station feel they are fighting an uphill battle. "The general atmosphere is getting towards more repression in Turkey," Acik's co-founder Omer Madra said wearily. "But we are very determined to fight on, and we've had some magnificent support from all the regions of the country."

With Donald Trump on course to begin his second term as US president, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is eyeing renewed opportunities for collaboration – hoping to rekindle the close relationship the two shared during Trump’s first presidency.

Erdogan, who congratulated Trump as a "friend" on social media, sees this as a chance to reshape US-Turkey relations.

During Biden’s presidency, engagement was largely limited to foreign ministers – marking a stark contrast to the “strong leader-to-leader relationship” Erdogan and Trump had enjoyed, says analyst Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, of the German Marshall Fund in Ankara.

Trump and President Erdogan met face to face about nine times, compared to only two "brief encounters" with Biden, he adds.

Chemistry

Erdogan often speaks warmly of his dealings with Washington during Trump's first term in office.

"The chemistry is the same. Two charismatic leaders, two leaders who are unpredictable," notes Turkish presidential adviser Mesut Casin, a professor of international relations at Istanbul's Yeditepe University.

He believes their personal rapport could set the stage for greater bilateral and regional cooperation, including efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine war.

Erdogan has long sought to play a role in ending the Russia-Ukraine war, given his close ties with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky and, more controversially, with Vladimir Putin – a relationship that drew criticism and suspicion from some of Turkey's NATO partners.

"Trump will push for negotiations in the Russia-Ukraine war. And I think that's something that Turkey has always preferred," predicts Asli Aydintasbas a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington.

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YPG policy

Erdogan will also look to Trump for changes in US policy toward the YPG, a Syrian Kurdish militia that Ankara views as linked to the PKK, a group fighting the Turkish state.

The YPG’s alliance with Washington against the Islamic State has strained US-Turkey relations, with Biden resisting Erdogan’s calls to end support for the group.

Former Turkish diplomat Aydin Selcen predicts Erdogan will hope Trump might be open to a deal.

"Erdogan thinks that, like himself, Trump too is a pragmatic leader. So leaving aside principles or other such in brackets, the two sides can reach an agreement by giving and taking something between the two," says Selcen.

Unpredictability

While Trump has often spoken positively about Erdogan, he nonetheless remains unpredictable.

“Can you rely on him?” asks Murat Aslan of SETA, a Turkish pro-government thinktank.

Tensions between Turkey and Israel could also complicate relations.

Erdogan has expressed hope that Trump will succeed where Biden failed in ending Israel’s war on Hamas and Hezbollah, but with Trump’s strong support for Israel and Erdogan’s backing of Hamas, a clash could be looming.

"What happens if there is an escalation in the Middle East with the polarisation of Israel and Turkey, as it currently is, and the attitude of Trump, it's very clear that the Trump administration will threaten Turkey," says Aslan.

With conflicts raging across the region, Erdogan views a new Trump presidency as an opportunity for Turkey and the region.

But given the leaders' unpredictability, that opportunity doesn't come without risks.

As the United States stands on the brink of what many are calling the most consequential presidential election in recent history, the nation is focused on the battleground state of Pennsylvania, where both Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump organised last-day rallies. RFI's Jan van der Made looks back at a campaign marked by unprecedented polarisation.

The bitter rivals embarked on a final frenzied campaign blitz Monday with both hitting must-win Pennsylvania on the last day of a tight and volatile US presidential election campaign.

Pennsylvania is the single biggest swing state prize under the US Electoral College system, which awards influence in line with population.

Republican Trump has promised a "landslide" as he seeks his return to the White House, while Democrat Harris said the "momentum" was on the side of her bid to be America's first woman president.

Deadlock

But the polls suggest a different story on the eve of Election Day – total deadlock in surveys nationally and in the seven swing states where the result is expected to be decided.

The world is anxiously watching the election, which is set to have profound implications for conflicts in the Middle East and Russia's war in Ukraine, and for tackling climate change.

Both sides say they are encouraged by early turnout numbers, with over 78 million people having voted already, around half of the total number of ballots cast in 2020.

No middle ground

The closeness of the 2024 White House race reflects a deeply divided United States, as it chooses between two candidates whose visions could scarcely be more different.

Media outlets and political parties have poured millions of dollars into advertising campaigns that leave little room for middle ground.

This stark divide is a reflection of the American political system, where the winner-takes-all approach often marginalises third-party candidates and reinforces the dominance of the two major parties.

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As election day approaches, the spotlight has fallen on undecided voters who may ultimately tip the scales in this tight race.

Campaign volunteers have been working tirelessly, engaging directly with potential voters in an effort to sway opinions and drive turnout.

To discuss what is at stake, RFI's Jan van der Made spoke to analyst J. Wesley Leckrone, Chair Political Science Widener University, Daniel Hopkins, Political Scientist University of Pennsylvania and Daniel Laurison, Associate Professor Sociology at Swarthmore College and former campaigner for Barack Obama.

With the presidential election in the United States only days away, Turkey is watching the vote closely. While Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan enjoyed a close working relationship with Donald Trump when he was president, analysts warn that a second term for Trump wouldn't come without risks for Ankara.

Erdogan has avoided commenting on the US election, but Ankara sees the outcome of the 5 November vote as key for Turkish-US relations.

Each of the contenders, Vice-President Kamala Harris and Trump, are expected to take significantly different approaches to Turkey's long-time leader.

"During the past Trump presidency, the political relationship at the highest level between Erdogan and Trump was a strong one," says Sinan Ulgen, head of the Centre for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies, an Istanbul think tank.

Ties with President Joe Biden have been notably less friendly, however, if Harris were to win the relationship with Erdogan is likely to be a much more shallow one, Ulgen believes.

Face-to-face time

Erdogan met Trump nine times during his 2017-21 presidency, including on a state visit to Washington.

In contrast, he met Biden only briefly on the sidelines of international summits, with US-Turkish relations mainly conducted at foreign-minister level.

"Erdogan has been in power for more than 20 years and Biden is the only US president who has refused to meet him in an official capacity, either in the US capital or in the Turkish capital," says international relations professor Serhat Guvenc of Istanbul's Kadir Has University.

"For Erdogan, leader-to-leader talks are key to achieving his goals. And probably, he thinks deep down that he can sort out many things through personal contact, connections or personal engagement."

Such interaction, especially with the most powerful person in the world, is also seen as vital to Erdogan's status at home.

"It's very important for his domestic standing and legitimacy," says Asli Aydintasbas, a political commentator and visiting fellow at the Washington-based Brookings Institution.

"He has built a personalised system but also convinced voters, particularly his base, that he is a consequential leader, that Turkey is rising, that he is very important, he is on par with the US president and the Russian president, that everybody is looking up to Erdogan."

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Lack of chemistry?

Aydintasbas questions how easy it would be for Erdogan to develop a relationship with Harris, even if she were ready to engage more directly than Biden.

"I cannot imagine what type of chemistry Harris and Erdogan would have. They don't come from similar backgrounds. It's difficult to imagine the two developing a very close personal relationship, to be honest," the analyst says.

Erdogan has often spoken warmly of his relationship with Trump – despite the fact he got hit by sanctions during his time in the White House over the detention of an American pastor, prompting the Turkish lira to crash in 2018.

Trump once even vowed to "totally destroy and obliterate" the Turkish economy over Turkey's threats to attack US-backed Syrian Kurdish forces.

"We have memories of the threats and sanctions," warns Murat Aslan of the pro-government Seta Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research in Ankara.

Invoking the 2018 crisis, Aslan said: "Rather than words, I think deeds are important."

Erdogan hopes a U-turn can salvage Turkey's floundering economy

High-risk candidate

The Middle East is another potential sticking point.

Trump is calling for more support for Israel in its wars against Hamas and Hezbollah, and analysts say differences could again emerge between the US and Turkish leaders.

"Trump's approach to the Middle East and the conflict between the Palestinians and Israel could actually escalate the tension in the Middle East to the extent that a regional war could be unavoidable," warns Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, who directs the German Marshall Fund's office in Ankara.

"So yes, a Trump presidency has many opportunities for Turkey – but at a very high risk."

Meanwhile, though there has been little direct contact between Biden and Erdogan, Turkish-US relations have shown signs of improvement in recent months.

With the two Nato allies increasingly cooperating and better managing their differences, Aydintasbas suggests, there are merits for Ankara to both candidates.

"A Kamala Harris administration would mean more continuity, but the promise of stability in Turkish-US relations," she says. "Whereas Trump is so unpredictable that it could be very good one day, very bad one day."

With the Middle East war continuing to rage, Trump's unpredictability remains a risk to Ankara – but Erdogan will likely still covet the opportunity to renew his relationship with the US strongman.