Filippo Gaddo, Managing Director at A&M and SPE Councillor, interviewed Russel Napier, author of The Solid Ground investment report for institutional investors and most recently author of 'The Asian Financial Crisis 1995-1998: Birth of the Age of Debt'.

Filippo and Russell discuss the current state of the international monetary system and whether it is fit for purpose - does it work for the two major world economies, the USA and China? It probably doesn't in Professor Napier's view and therefore we should expect changes to come - though the timing is uncertain. The currency and monetary imbalances will continue to put stress on the system and there is limited chance for an international coordination 'accord' to fix it. The current policies - including tariff policies - we see today are a reflection of those imbalances and the way policy makers are reacting to them.

Russell and Filippo also review the current trends in Europe - both towards integration, for example in defence policy, but also towards devolution, in the fiscal and monetary realm, and how those two forces may interact in the next few years.

The Letta and Draghi report, as well as Macron's April 2024 speech, loom large in the background: Russell suggests the policies presented in the Draghi report are more likely than not to materialise in some way and therefore there is a positive story for a number of sectors and for investments in 'tangible' assets, which could bring benefits to blue-collar workers in Europe. We even see some bright spots for the UK.

Finally, the conversation covers a very important point: the need for better knowledge and an accurate understanding of financial and economic history, an effort Professor Napier is taking forward through his charitable work with the Library of Mistakes. Please see www.libraryofmistakes.com/ for more information.

Professor Russell Napier is author of The Solid Ground investment report for institutional investors and co-founder of the investment research portal ERIC- a business he now co-owns with D.C. Thomson. Russell has worked in the investment business for over 30 years and has been advising global institutional investors on asset allocation since 1995. Russell is author of the book Anatomy of The Bear: Lessons From Wall Street’s Four Great Bottoms (‘a cult classic’ according to the FT) and is founder and course director of The Practical History of Financial Markets at The Edinburgh Business School. His second book – The Asian Financial Crisis 1995-1998: Birth of the Age of Debt– was published in July 2021.

In 2014 Russell founded the charitable venture The Library of Mistakes, a business and financial history library in Edinburgh that now has branches in India and Switzerland.

Russell has degrees in law from Queen’s University Belfast and Magdalene College Cambridge. He is a Fellow of The CFA Society of the UK and is an Honorary Professor at The University of Stirling and a Visiting Professor at Heriot-Watt University.