What is it for?

Several public and private institutions implement programs to improve society’s welfare. Some of these programs are effective and achieve their goals, but it is not uncommon for some projects to fail at accomplishing the expected outcomes.

Therefore, the theory of change allows us to:

Understand what the specific need to be addressed through a certain program is (a specific problem to be solved must be identified).

Streamline ideas about the policy’s components, and how they will be combined to reach the expected outcomes.

Set medium- and long-term intermediate outcomes and develop their corresponding indicators.

Enable the development of multiple impact indicators, both in the short- and long-term.

Focus on just one intervention with specific outputs.

Identify the channels whereby we seek to impact the intermediates outcomes and impact indicators.

Ensure knowledge and understanding of the requirements to implement an effective policy and, therefore, to achieve the desired change.

What questions does the Theory of Change respond?

Through the theory of change we can verify if a program’s design is appropriate, if the number of provided outputs accomplishes a specific intermediate outcome, and, therefore, if a final impact is achieved.

It also contributes to identifying problem determinants and how these are connected throughout the entire causal chain, and even to determining, to a certain extent, the effectiveness of an action.

The theory of change allows us to recognize:

If the different actions, interventions or activities carried out within the programcan help us meet the population’s need.

What are the assumptions and conditions to ensure that the intervention will have an effect on intermediate outcomes and the impacts sought.

Recognizes immediate outcomes, mechanisms or channels whereby the program would be expected to work and translate into improved well-being.

Identifies the expected final outcomes to improve the population’s well-being.

Recognizes what the different determinants of a problem are.

What potential actions can be taken to meet the identified need.

Only an impact evaluation can verify if the pathway proposed within the theory of change or value chain is met, and in what magnitude.