Beijing's diplomacy around the Hormuz crisis has stopped being defensive. Three observable Chinese moves in the last few days show one architecture at work, and the read-across to Pacific chokepoints is what the analytical mainstream hasn't priced yet.

This brief covers:

1. Beijing took the broker slot at Hormuz. Twenty-seven nations in the mission. Zero Chinese participation. Wang Yi positioned as the de-escalation channel. The Trump-backed ship-insurance facility has done $0 business — the market is voting with premium dollars.

2. Bilateral access went live. Iran's flag-discrimination transit screen is operational and Chinese-flagged tonnage clears first. USNI flagged the precedent could spread, and the mainstream defence press hasn't picked it up.

3. Hudson Institute and CSIS converged in seven days on Taiwan's chokepoint vulnerability. Xi's "extremely dangerous" summit language hand-tips which Pacific chokepoint Beijing is studying next.

The thesis: anyone modelling Indo-Pacific maritime risk on historical blockade scenarios is modelling the wrong tail.

Sources graded per NATO Admiralty System. Likelihood per UK PHIA Probability Yardstick. Confidence per ICD 203.

Watch the video version: https://youtu.be/HKdiYxSuT9Q

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