US forces have launched new strikes on Iranian targets near the Strait of Hormuz, with Washington describing the operation as “self-defense” after Iranian vessels were reportedly involved in mine-laying activities and missile threats against US assets. The latest escalation comes at a highly fragile moment as negotiations are reportedly continuing over a possible ceasefire framework. But major disagreements remain over sanctions relief, uranium enrichment, Israel's attacks on Lebanon, and freedom of navigation through one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints. Are we seeing the first steps of a possible diplomatic settlement, or simply a temporary pause before another round of confrontation? Can Washington prevent the Strait of Hormuz from becoming the center of a much wider regional conflict? And how vulnerable is the global economy to another major shock in the Gulf?