Tuesday, May 5, 2026, Paris

It was no surprise that the US tried to test Iran’s resolve on the Strait of Hormuz just after it announced the launch on Monday of its “Project Freedom,” an attempt to break the Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz by offering ships passage.

What was a bit shocking was the Iranian response. It launched a barrage of missiles at the United Arab Emirates, including at least one that allegedly struck at the country’s sole Gulf of Oman oil terminal in the emirate Fujairah, setting it on fire.

The messaging by the Iranians was clear. Tehran is not afraid of escalation. Indeed, some factions in Iran have been saying for weeks that the Pakistani-brokered ceasefire was a mistake. They argue that a return to war that would more rapidly damage the US-led global economy from which Iran has been excluded would be preferable to the current stalemate.

On the today’s badlands podcast, I speak briefly about the recent, dangerous escalation. I also speak with India’s NewsXWorld about the continued US belief that Iran is fractured and whether it is even possible for the US to impose its world with military means alone.

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