The ceasefire’s held for over a week. The rockets, drones, and fighter-bombers are all taking a breather. The Strait of Hormuz might be opening (except to Iranian traffic, perhaps). The Gulf Arab states are expressing (very) cautious optimism. Israel might be holding its fire in Lebanon during its own separate, but linked, conflict with Hizbullah. And the Trump Administration may be on its way to back to Islamabad to try to secure a deal before the ceasefire formally lapses next week.

This is all good news… but does it really mean the war’s over? And even if it is, will it result in a lasting peace? Many issues remain unresolved, including the status of Iran’s nuclear program; its missile arsenal and regional proxy forces; and, of course, who will control the Strait of Hormuz on an ongoing basis. Plenty of claims on these points are coming out of the Trump Administration; Iran, for the time being, is mostly silent.

Increased American pressure, applied to Iranian intransigence, could result in outcomes ranging from a grand bargain to a redoubling of hostilities. The global economy, the U.S. midterm elections, and the longterm future of the fossil fuel system all hang in the balance.

This week, we’ve invited friend of the show Prof. Andrew Leber back on, and complemented him with our grad school buddy Prof. Paasha Mahdavi of UCSB—an expert on the politics of energy—to help us make sense of this increasingly confounding situation.

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