The theory of the Iran War from the U.S. perspective, to the extent that one existed, hinged on getting in and out quickly: decapitate the leadership, do maximum military damage, hope that the Iranian people rise up and take over, and then go home in triumph either way. Two to three weeks, tops.

So much for that happy idea. We are five weeks in to this military “excursion,” to use President Trump’s terminology. America just blew up the biggest bridge in Iran, F-15s are getting shot out of the sky, and explosives are raining down across the entire region.

The president is tying himself in rhetorical knots, bouncing between claiming victory and threatening unlimited escalation, trying to jawbone the increasingly restive energy and stock markets all the while. Iranian hardliners are firmly in control of both their country and the all-important Strait of Hormuz. Contrary to Trump’s argument, we see little reason to think that they’ll allow tanker traffic to return to normal should the U.S. stop fighting.

The economic pain has already arrived for the Gulf’s major energy customers in Asia. Europe and North America are next. And if there’s one thing we know about American politics, it’s that high energy prices and inflation can destroy any political career — even Teflon Don’s. And if Trump ends up going down, we see a possibility that he’ll take Netanyahu and potentially even the U.S. - Israel alliance down with him.

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