The US-Iran ceasefire effectively collapsed over the weekend, and crude jumped back above $74 on the news. Jerremy Alexander Newsome and Dave Conley walk through the tech market's gap-down open and the case for a pullback toward the 50-day moving average on the Nasdaq-100, plus why Jerremy is aggressively short SpaceX — targeting $70–100 a share against its near-$3 trillion peak valuation. They break down the real mechanism behind Fed rate policy: the federal government competing with everyday borrowers for debt buyers, which keeps rates elevated regardless of what the Fed does with its own target. Grocery prices, tariffs, and the politics of the Middle East round out the conversation, along with a preview of Tesla, Meta, and NVIDIA earnings.

Timestamps:

• (00:31) Ceasefire collapses – Iran deal unravels over the weekend, crude spikes past $74
• (00:56) Tech gap-down – Nasdaq-100 gap likely fills lower before buyers step back in
• (02:56) Short SpaceX – Jerremy targets $70–100 a share versus its near-$3T peak
• (04:57) Fed testimony collides with CPI – markets price 60–64% odds of a September move
• (07:50) Who really sets rates – government competes with everyday borrowers for debt buyers
• (09:27) Earnings season ahead – Tesla, Meta, and NVIDIA's next moves into late July

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