Welcome to a new episode of the Tipping Point from the TRT World Research Centre.

In this episode, we examine Iran’s escalating unrest, which began in late December 2025 and has evolved from economic protest into a broader structural challenge. What makes this moment distinct is not only the scale of mobilisation, but the range of actors now involved.

While much of the international coverage has focused on street demonstrations, developments on the ground point to a deeper shift. In Tehran, Abadan, and other urban centres, protests are no longer confined to students or youth groups. The closure of major bazaars signals the entry of Iran’s traditional merchant class—historically a key pillar of the post-revolutionary order—into the crisis. With the national currency sharply depreciating and inflation eroding purchasing power, long-standing economic arrangements between state institutions and commercial actors are under strain.

This episode unpacks the political economy behind the unrest. We explore how the expanding economic footprint of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has reshaped market access, marginalising traditional businesses and intensifying internal competition. We also assess the symbolic dimensions of the protests, including the appearance of alternative national imagery, not as a straightforward call for restoration, but as an expression of broader disillusionment with the current system.

We also situate the protests within a volatile regional and international context. Heightened tensions with Israel, sharp rhetoric from Washington, and recent security lapses have further weakened perceptions of state competence. At the same time, restrictions on digital access—alongside debates over satellite connectivity—highlight the growing role of information control in managing dissent.

Key issues discussed include:

• The significance of merchant strikes as an indicator of elite fragmentation
• The IRGC’s parallel economy and its impact on Iran’s commercial landscape
• The political meaning of symbolic protest without assuming a singular ideological direction
• External pressures and their interaction with domestic instability
• Digital constraints, limited reform signals, and their effectiveness amid economic crisis

Join us as we assess how economic stress, elite realignment, and geopolitical pressure intersect in a country approaching a critical threshold.

Note: This podcast episode is AI narrated.