Iraq will go to the polls on November 11 in an election likely to be dominated by the Iran-backed parties of the Shi‘a Coordination Framework. Although Moqtada al-Sadr is boycotting the election, he is likely weighing his options in both the short- and medium-term. That may mean quietly supporting independent candidates who could sway the government formation process while biding his time in case an opportunity arises to destabilize the caretaker government that will hold power until the leading Shi‘a parties resolve their differences. The United States still has a meaningful role to play, particularly with Prime Minister Muhammad al-Sudani playing up his ties to Washington as part of his campaign for a second term. Yet the recent spate of warnings from senior U.S. officials about the need to disarm the Popular Mobilization Forces have largely fallen on deaf ears, marking a significant shift away from the leading role that America once played in Iraqi politics. What are the likely outcomes of this election, and what do they mean for the United States?

In this episode, Joshua Yaphe speaks with Tamer al-Badawi, an Associate Fellow at both the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) and the Center for Applied Research in Partnership with the Orient (CARPO). He also writes on Substack, where he publishes The Iraq Nexus, a weekly analysis and news update.

Music by Ashot Danielyan from Pixabay.