Financial Review

Irrational Spending


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….Kicking off 3Q earnings season. IMF meets in DC. EPA to scrap Clean Power Plan. Waiting on Catlans. Google sold ads to Russian trolls. Weinstein out. Trump-Corker battle. California goes after drug prices. Vet ETF. Thaler’s crazy economics. Financial Review by Sinclair Noe for 10-09-2017   DOW – 12 = 22,761 SPX – 4 = 2544 NAS – 10 = 6579 RUT  – 6 = 1503 10 Y bond market closed OIL + .23 = 49.52 GOLD + 7.50 = 1284.60   Third quarter earnings season kicks into high gear this week with 8% of the S&P 500 slated to report results. And while companies are forecast to reveal a healthy pace of earnings growth, expectations are already very high. A solid earnings season may not be enough to move the market higher. Even though the S&P 500 Index climbs to new heights on an almost daily basis, analysts have been quietly reducing their third-quarter profit forecasts, seeing an earnings gain of just 4%, after two quarters of over 10% growth.  Analysts also see sales growth of 4% year-over-year, a slight deceleration for the second quarter’s 5% growth. Earnings estimates tend to start out muted as company executives guide analysts lower only to beat the forecasts in a phenomenon known as under-promise and over-deliver. The expected gain in earnings is less than the estimated 5 percent jump in revenue, implying negative earnings leverage. If companies can’t beat estimates, then there is no justification for near record prices. And more than ...
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Financial ReviewBy Sinclair Noe