There is a compelling divergence regarding President Obama's reelection chances when we consider what the poll numbers are telling us versus what the boots on the ground are indicating.

A Wall Street Journal/NBC News nationwide poll taken during June 20-24 shows that Obama still leads the presumptive GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney 47% to 44%.  These results are within the poll's margin of error and are also close to the Real Clear Politics aggregation of major polls which finds Obama leading Romney 47.5% to 43.8%.