Specifically the experts, in this cases a team of epidemiologist working at Imperial College London, had devised a model that predicted how fast the virus would spread, based on their understanding of its infection rate.

The Team was lead by chief researcher Neil Ferguson, and the model they produced is now referred to as the Ferguson Model. In that early Model, the team predicted that each infected Corona Virus carrier would infect approximately 2 ½ other people.

Based on that one data point, a conclusion really, much of our current strategy of quarantine and self isolation was proposed.

But what if that data point was wrong?