US financial system fragility, private credit, Treasury basis trade, Japan’s BOJ and Bitcoin—Neil Woodford explains what could break next (and what probably won’t).

Jon and Neil stress-test the popular “2007 again?” narrative and separate market panic from actual plumbing risks. Neil pushes back on the idea that today’s private credit story is a straight replay of subprime, arguing the parallels are overstated and that most of the market is conventional longer-term lending.

We also cover:

💰 Leverage and market structure: where genuine fragility might sit if funding conditions tighten, and why leverage concentrated in financial-market plumbing matters more than headline doom narratives.  

🇯🇵 Japan as the “quiet character”: why rising JGB yields and the yen carry trade may be less of a structural threat than many assume.  

₿ Crypto systemic risk vs bad investment: MicroStrategy, stablecoins, and why Neil differentiates between an ugly trade and a system-wide destabiliser.