In this episode of the Miami Condo Mondays™ podcast, we discuss how the 2025 Summer Buying Season is statistically similar to the South Florida condo market back in 2007 before the Great Recession.

Miami Condo Mondays™ is a live podcast hosted by Peter Zalewski of the Miami Condo Investing Club™ and veteran broker Jenny Huertas of CVRRealty.com providing an in-depth look at the latest residential real estate trends in South Florida.

Recorded weekly in Greater Downtown Miami, the podcast offers a one-hour discussion on various real estate topics, including preconstruction condos, market trends and investment strategies.

The hosts share their expertise, with Zalewski focusing on macro perspectives and Huertas offering micro insights from her on-the-ground experience.

Tune in every Monday at 4 PM (EST) on the social media accounts of Peter Zalewski and Jenny Huertas for insights on the latest trends in the South Florida condo market.

Episode Overview

The 2025-26 Winter Buying Season has officially arrived in South Florida, bringing with it balmy weather, numerous events and the Carnival-like atmosphere that typically fuels real estate sales to second-home buyers.

Beneath this vibrant surface, however, the condo market in the tricounty region of Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach is flashing warning signs that eerily mirror the onset of the 2008 Great Recession financial crisis.

During the latest episode of the Miami Condo Mondays™ podcast on Nov. 17, 2025, co-host Jenny Huertas, broker-owner of CVR Realty, argued that the current psychological climate reminds her of 2007.

Huertas’ observation was independently verified by Gemini AI, which analyzed historical condo sales data to confirm that the region is currently in a state of “Denial” where pricing remains artificially high despite a catastrophic collapse in transaction volume.

Statistics pulled by veteran consultant Peter Zalewski of the Miami Condo Investing Club™ from the recently concluded 2025 Summer Buying Season—that stretched from May through October—paint a stark picture of deteriorating demand.

During those six months, the tricounty South Florida region recorded less than 12,200 condo transactions, a figure that stands in sharp contrast to the 28,150 sales during the 2021 peak, according to a recent report.

This represents a 57 percent decline from the post-pandemic condo buying frenzy when out of towners flooded into the state to work remotely from South Florida for corporations based in high-wage locations, including California, Illinois and New York.

Even more concerning is the comparison to the 2019 condo sales volume baseline of normalcy, as current transaction activity trails pre-pandemic levels by 33 percent.

The average monthly deal count has dropped to 2,032, falling well below the 20-year historical pace of more than 2,800 units.

A proprietary analysis of Zalewski’s data by Gemini AI suggests that volume always collapses first, serving as a leading indicator that buyer demand is evaporating.

In 2007, sales during the Summer Buying Season fell to roughly 8,800 units while pricing peaked at nearly $315,000 per residence, creating a temporary illusion of stability before the eventual crash.

Today, South Florida is experiencing an almost identical structural setup where sellers cling to 2021 valuations despite the total disappearance of buyers.

The primary difference in today’s market compared 2008 is the catalyst.

The previous bust was driven by easily obtainable mortgages and low 20-percent deposits—compared to 50 percent deposits today—on preconstruction condo units.

This downturn is fueled by stubbornly high mortgage rates, slowing employment and growing regulatory fear by cash-strapped unit owners related to the Florida Condo Association Financial Cliff.