ITPM Podcast

ITPM Flash Ep98 Trading the K-Shaped Economy


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ITPM Flash provides insight into what professional traders are thinking about in the markets RIGHT NOW!

The K-shaped economy is widening — and markets are still pricing only the winners. In this episode, Ed breaks down why the AI-driven data-center supercycle has become a macro force, propping up growth, earnings, and asset prices while masking deepening stress in the real economy. With the top 10% now driving half of all discretionary spending, the system is increasingly dependent on rising asset values rather than wage growth.

Ed argues the real risk isn't inflation — it's consumer spending. As AI boosts productivity without job growth, anxiety around employment could tip the lower arm of the K into contraction, triggering credit stress, falling discretionary demand, and a negative wealth effect that eventually hits equities. He outlines how traders should position for volatility, where patience matters most, and which macro triggers would signal when the K-shaped economy finally breaks.

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ITPM PodcastBy Institute of Trading and Portfolio Management (ITPM)

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