What are “Zero-Validity” forecasters, and why should you ignore them?

In this 9-min video, I use Robert Kiyosaki’s latest warning as a case study, alongside a nearly identical call he made in 2022 urging investors into gold, silver, and crypto just before a strong stock-market advance.

At both moments, our system was buying and went on to post market-beating results.

This video shows why forecasts fail in an unknowable market. A rules-based approach, grounded in history, consistently outperforms guesswork.

We don’t win by predicting. We win with a schedule, rules, and arithmetic.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit jasonkelly.substack.com/subscribe

Stocks dropped fast in March. Headlines turned sharply bearish. Goldman Sachs warned of a potential 20%+ decline. Commentators pointed to oil shocks, rising rates, and recession risks.

Paying attention to all that led investors astray.

In this 16-minute video, I walk through the Nasdaq Composite year-to-date through April 16, 2026, exactly where the headlines told you to panic versus where our rules told us to gear up, and what happened next (spoiler: the market erased its Iran war losses in weeks).

If you followed the news, you probably sat it out. If you followed a schedule and predefined rules, you’re already in new profit territory.

And, believe it or not, the pundits are already warning again. The lesson never changes: adhere to a methodology, follow a schedule, ignore the headlines.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit jasonkelly.substack.com/subscribe

A week ago, the market “knew” the Iran war would escalate.

Days later, it “knew” a ceasefire was coming.

In between, investors were told to be “nimble,” “agile,” and ready for anything—none of which translates into an actual investment decision.

In this 9-minute video, I walk through that sequence using Barron’s, Bloomberg, and The Wall Street Journal. The conclusion is straightforward:

Nobody knew what was going to happen.

We didn’t either. But we didn’t need to.

Our plans had a scheduled action on April 6. Prices were down. The rules said buy. We executed.

That’s the difference between a process and a guess.

If you rely on headlines, you’re always reacting after the fact. If you rely on rules, you’re already positioned when the turn comes.

See our performance at jasonkelly.com

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit jasonkelly.substack.com/subscribe

Market volatility has been intense heading into our first-quarter signals at the Kelly Letter. We’ve seen a mix of panic and FOMO, with the Nasdaq 100 jumping 3.4% just yesterday.

In this 9-min video, I cover why sticking to our system matters more than reacting to daily headlines, especially when events are this unpredictable.

I encourage all subscribers to sync with the letter this weekend and try out our improved calculator to stay on track. Our plans are built to thrive in stretches like this.

If you’re not yet a subscriber, you can learn more here:

https://jasonkelly.com

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit jasonkelly.substack.com/subscribe

Markets are volatile again, with the Iran war weighing on sentiment and pushing prices around. That’s when investors feel the strongest urge to pick the bottom.

But you don't need to catch exact market bottoms or tops to be successful. Getting close is good enough.

Our 9Sig plan has delivered a 34% annual return since January 2017 without trying to time exact tops or bottoms. The edge comes from discipline and rules, not prediction.

If you’re a Kelly Letter subscriber, this is a reminder to stay with the plan. If you’re not, you can learn more here:

https://jasonkelly.com

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit jasonkelly.substack.com/subscribe

In this video, I walk through the stock-market volatility driven by the Iran war, and why this is exactly the kind of environment our plans were built for.

Sentiment has swung to extreme fear on CNN’s Fear & Greed Index. Historically, that’s where opportunity begins. In the 2020 covid crash and the 2025 tariff selloff, our April signals aligned with market lows.

Kelly Letter subscribers should focus on our rules and discipline. Don’t second-guess, just execute. Our plans remove the need to predict and react emotionally. They want to capitalize on lower prices. Stick with our system. Stay on our schedule. Be prepared to act when the signals arrive.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit jasonkelly.substack.com/subscribe

To read this report, please click here.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit jasonkelly.substack.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit jasonkelly.substack.com

To read this report, please click here.

To read this report, please click here.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit jasonkelly.substack.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit jasonkelly.substack.com

To read this report, please click here.