Joblessness for Black workers is rising again, two years after reaching a record low. It’s a troubling indicator: A rise in black unemployment is often considered an early warning sign for the overall economy, as Black workers are frequently the first to be laid off during economic downturns.

The administration’s efforts to reshape the federal government have serious implications for federal workers and their families—especially Black workers.

For decades, the federal government has provided stable employment, excellent benefits, and key protections in hiring and promotions that supported a robust Black middle class.

This time, the administration’s assault on diversity programs and cuts to the federal work force could make it even more difficult for Black workers to recover when conditions improve.

The African American unemployment rate has surged over the past four months, from 6 to 7.5 percent, while the rate for white people ticked down slightly to 3.7 percent. On top of a slowing economy, the White House’s actions have disproportionately harmed Black workers, economists said.

Since the 1970s, the rate for Black people has run about twice the rate for white people. Because of inferior educational opportunities, the legacy of mass incarceration and discrimination over generations, Black people confront greater challenges in the job market.

In 2023, conditions for Black workers looked as healthy as ever. Unemployment reached a low of 4.8 percent. Wages rose at their fastest pace since data collection began in the 1990s, and median Black household wealth reached the highest level on record.

Conditions started to deteriorate in 2024 after pandemic-era subsidies expired. Hiring slowed, and high prices weighed heavily on low-income earners. Black households were the only racial group last year in which median income fell and the poverty rate rose, according to the Census Bureau.

Job losses are concentrated among Black women working in professional services such as human resources, according to Ms. Wilson’s analysis of federal data. A hiring freeze and mass layoffs in the federal work force, which have continued during the government shutdown and now exceed 200,000, have also fallen disproportionately on Black workers.

The hiring freeze is an impediment to young workers trying to get their foot in the door, too.

State and local governments have picked up some of the slack from federal agencies. But competition for those jobs has gotten tougher with more laid-off public-sector workers looking for positions.

The Los Angeles Black Worker Center, has pushed local governments to hire more Black workers because unionized public-sector jobs have historically provided an on-ramp to stable employment.

The federal backlash against diversity, equity and inclusion practices may be making it more difficult for Black workers to get hired in the private sector, too. The administration ordered that group not to pursue racial equity anymore.

Lower interest rates could offer some relief. Representative Ayanna Pressley, Democrat of Massachusetts, wrote to Jerome H. Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve, in early September demanding that the central bank take stronger action to support full employment for Black workers. Fed officials lowered rates later in the month for the first time this year and suggested that more cuts were likely.

But the administration’s actions beyond work-force cuts and anti-D.E.I. policies, could create additional hurdles for Black workers. The Department of Labor’s proposed rollback of minimum-wage and overtime protections for domestic workers, for example, would hurt their incomes. Home care aides for the elderly are overwhelmingly Black and Hispanic women.

And despite the claim that immigrants take jobs from Black people, rising joblessness among Black workers suggests that mass deportations of migrants haven’t arrested the trend.

immigrants fill labor shortages, complement the native workforce, and create jobs through entrepreneurship and increased economic demand. Instead of displacing U.S.-born workers, immigrants often take jobs that native-born workers are unwilling or unable to do, or they fill high-skill positions that are in high demand.

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