Caution: You may need a strong cup of Kopi after listening to our year-ending podcast with Dr. Nouriel Roubini, an economist and market analyst, who famously called the severity of the sub-prime crisis back in 2008 and has been warning about the fragility of the crypto ecosystem in recent years.  But it is essential listening, as a recent review of his book, MegaThreats, points out: “Roubini’s warnings may be alarmingly scary, but they are also disturbingly plausible” (John Thornhill, Financial Times). We begin with his sobering assessment of the near term outlook, with recession risks rising in the UK and Europe, with the US not far behind, along with China with its struggles to reopen the economy. Nouriel does not see inflation easing sufficiently in the near term, and envisages an era of “great stagflation” in the coming years. His rationale for structurally higher inflation is wide ranging, from the impact of deglobalisation to aging, along with green transition and populism.  He also sees a looming debt crisis like no other, with the US, Europe, and China already overleveraged, teetering on the brink of cascading defaults and financial market contagion. He fears fiscal and monetary policy errors, great power rivalry, pandemic, climate change, cyber warfare, and financial instability holding back growth and prosperity in the coming decades, unless technological advances and welfare enhancing policies offset those headwinds. Nouriel worries that the period of global prosperity enjoyed since the end of the second world war is coming to an end; let’s hope he is wrong, but let’s also heed his warnings.

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