Happy new year! We kick off the year with a discussion on the likely impact of Trump policies on US markets, starting with the 1890s McKinley tariff narrative. There are major lessons for the market outlook from that episode, in our view. Returning to the present, we think through the ways tariffs and immigration measures can complicate the inflation picture and the Fed easing narrative. From there, we consider implications for rates, credit, and FX. We then assess the Asian outlook in the context of Trump 2.0. We end with a stock-taking of China’s recent economic performance and the road ahead for supportive measures.

Two recent publications:
Macro Insights Weekly: The coming trade shock and Asia
ASEAN-6 2025 Outlook: Crosswinds

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