Landing the Moon

October 14, 2026: NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman's September 20 memo reportedly says Artemis III is running about 90 days behind schedule. Max and Blake work through what is known, noting that the memo is covered here through a secondary recap and that the 90 days has no public breakdown.

Topics discussed:

• Hardware: the memo's focus on valves, thrust vector control actuators and landers, backup options such as ICPS, Centaur V and Mobile Launcher 1 hardware, the open Orion helium leak, a planned SLS tanking test, and Blue Origin's LC-36 rebuild for New Glenn.
• Budget: the continuing resolution (H.R. 6500) that funds NASA at $24.4B through December 11, five weeks after the November 3 midterms, and how it differs from the roughly $9.995B in reconciliation money available through 2032.
• Outlook: whether a 2028 crewed landing is still realistic.

The hosts disagree on whether multi-year reconciliation funding is reassuring for the schedule. Blake says it removes one way to lose days; Max says it buys none.

In the coming week, watch for any itemization of the 90 days, news on the SLS tanking test or Orion helium fix, and signs that appropriations committees are moving bills before December 11.

September 30, 2026: This episode examines the May 28 New Glenn explosion during a hotfire test at Launch Complex 36, attributed to a BE-4 valve, and what it means for NASA's Artemis plans. LC-36 is Blue Origin's only pad, so downtime delays proving the rocket.

• Pad rebuild: Blue Origin targets a return to flight by the end of 2026. Max sees the early start as a sign of credibility, while Blake presses on the unstated assumptions.
• MK1 Endurance and MK2: MK1 has finished thermal vacuum testing at NASA's Johnson Space Center, but its launch is now reported as no earlier than early 2027 and depends on New Glenn. MK2 is tied to Artemis 3, which NASA targets for 2027.
• Backup or hedge: Neither Starship nor Blue Moon is certified for astronauts. The hosts land on Blue Moon being a hedge, not yet a true backup, but disagree on how far SpaceX is ahead.

In the coming week, watch for updates on LC-36 rebuild progress, any change to the MK1 early-2027 timing, and NASA comments on decoupling Blue Moon from New Glenn.

On September 23, 2026, Landing the Moon breaks down a new NASA inspector general report (IG-26-006) warning that the AxEMU spacesuit has little to no schedule margin left before Artemis III's 2028 target. Hosts Max and Blake weigh Axiom's claim of over 700 crewed pressurized testing hours in the NBL pool against the IG's historical-average data, which suggests comparable suit programs typically take 8.7 years versus AxEMU's promised 3.4 years.

The episode covers the reported restructuring of Artemis III into a 2027 earth-orbital test of AxEMU and the landers ahead of two 2028 lunar landings, the inspector general's list of three alternate suit vendors, and a simplified spacesuit design NASA and Axiom are reportedly developing as a hedge. Max and Blake also unpack Axiom's public rebuttal on X, which cited over 950 hours of testing, a completed thermal vacuum test, and more than 1,300 delivered products, alongside CEO Jonathan Cirtain's direct response to the audit.

Max and Blake don't fully agree on whether the testing hours or the historical delay math should carry more weight, and they leave open whether a simplified suit means the full-capability version slips to a later mission.

Listeners should watch for further Axiom updates and any NASA announcements clarifying the Artemis III mission timeline in the weeks ahead.

On September 16, 2026, Landing the Moon reviews a new safety report on Orion's propulsion system, revealing a helium leak that requires a redesign before Artemis III can fly. Hosts Max and Blake break down NASA's Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel findings, starting with confirmation that Orion's heat shield fix worked as intended, then turning to the more troubling news: an in-flight helium leak running far above ground-test predictions, with NASA's Kshatriya targeting a fix for Artemis IV rather than Artemis III.

The episode also covers SLS booster stacking at Kennedy Space Center, the cancellation of the four-engine Exploration Upper Stage, and a new 2027 low-Earth-orbit docking test added to the Artemis III timeline. Max and Blake disagree over whether hardware progress like stacking says anything meaningful about launch dates, and whether budget uncertainty or engineering risk poses the bigger threat to the program.

Listeners should watch for movement on FY2027 appropriations before the December 11 funding deadline, and whether the helium valve fix shifts back onto the Artemis III schedule.

Recorded September 9, 2026, this episode of Landing the Moon breaks down SpaceX's push for Starship's first real orbital insertion on Flight 14, targeting a September 15 launch with Booster 21 and Ship 41. Max and Blake dig into why this attempt matters more than previous suborbital hops, and how it connects directly to NASA's Artemis III timeline through the HLS lunar lander's propellant transfer requirements.

The hosts disagree on how much confidence to place in the September 15 date, with Blake citing a long history of slipped Starship schedules while Max argues the shift to a true orbital target changes the stakes. They also cover the delayed tower-catch attempt, the roughly twenty Starlink V3 satellites riding along, and what a successful orbit or another booster loss would mean for NASA's lunar plans.

Listeners should watch for FAA flight clearance news and whether the September 15 launch attempt holds as the date approaches.

Recorded September 2, 2026, this episode of Landing the Moon covers the newly announced early-September target for Starship Flight 14, following Jared Isaacman's remarks at Kennedy Space Center and completed static fires on Ship 41 and Booster 21.

Max and Blake dig into what actually changed since the last episode: two separate static-fire tests, an FCC filing pointing to Starlink V3 satellites as the real payload, and the confirmed removal of the tower-catch attempt from this flight. The hosts disagree on timing, with Max predicting an on-schedule launch and Blake expecting roughly a ten-day slip, though both agree the catch attempt won't return this year. They also unpack why a successful orbital flight wouldn't close the propellant-transfer and uncrewed-landing gaps flagged by GAO and NASA's Inspector General for the HLS lander.

• Ship 41 and Booster 21 static-fire results and what they confirm
• Starlink V3 as Flight 14's likely payload, per FCC filings
• Why the tower catch was dropped and what it means for Artemis IV risk

Watch for confirmation of the static-fire-to-launch timeline and any updated FCC filings on Starlink V3 satellite counts in the coming week.

August 26, 2026 — This episode breaks down why SpaceX quietly dropped the plan to try a Starship ship catch on Flight 14 and what that means for Artemis III timing.

The hosts unpack how the September 15th Starship Flight 14 date emerged from FAA filings and airspace closures, then walk through the current status of Ship 41 and Booster 21, including recent static fires and extended preflight work in the Mega Bay. They also examine the GAO’s finding that SpaceX is more than a year behind on key HLS milestones and how that squares with NASA Administrator Bill Nelson’s public confidence in a 2027 Artemis III landing.

• How Flight 14’s “not-earlier-than” window was inferred from public documents
• Why the planned tower ship catch was shelved despite earlier optimism
• Tension between Max and Blake over how seriously to take Isaacman’s rapid-cadence claims

Listeners should watch this week for updated FAA licensing activity, any visible rollout of Booster 21, and changes to Starship test windows from South Texas.

On this episode, published August 19, 2026, Max and Blake cover the restructuring of Artemis III into a Blue Moon MK2 docking demonstration rather than a lunar landing, a change that reshapes the mission's near-term goals. They also examine SpaceX's 24-day ocean tow of Starship Ship 40 to Christmas Island, the split results of Flight 13 (a clean 33-engine liftoff paired with Booster 20's rough 10-of-13 engine relight and hard splashdown), and the orbital propellant transfer milestone still gating the HLS lander per GAO data.

The hosts disagree over whether the Ship 40 salvage produced usable engineering data or just an expensive photo op, and Blake challenges Isaacman's public confidence in a 2027 Artemis III timeline given SLS and Orion's history. They close by grading their episode 31 predictions and staking new claims on Ship 41's static fire and a possible Flight 14 tower catch.

• Artemis III now targets a docking demo, not a landing
• Flight 13 results split between ship success and booster failure
• Orbital propellant transfer remains the key unproven HLS milestone
• Blue Origin emerges as a real competitor for the lunar landing contract

Watch for updates on Ship 41's static fire schedule and whether Flight 14 attempts a tower catch.

Recorded July 29, 2026, this episode of Landing the Moon breaks down Starship Flight 13, which launched July 24 on its third attempt and deployed 20 Starlink V3 satellites in the vehicle's first operational payload drop. Booster 20 nailed its boostback burn but lost the landing burn and crashed into the Gulf, and Max and Blake dig into conflicting engine-count reports on that failure and why the FAA seems to be treating it differently than the 52-day grounding after Flight 12.

The hosts also examine Ship 40's single Raptor relight in space and what it means for NASA's Human Landing System timeline, plus CSIS reporting on NASA's restructured Artemis schedule, including a possible Blue Origin backup lander. Max and Blake disagree sharply on whether a second lander provider reduces or increases schedule risk, and they grade their own predictions about the July 16 LC 30 abort against new turbopump details.

• Booster 20 landing burn failure and FAA review timeline
• Ship 40's in-space Raptor relight and HLS implications
• Artemis III/IV schedule changes and the Blue Moon Mark 2 debate

Watch for whether SpaceX attempts a tower catch on Flight 14 and how long the FAA review of Booster 20 takes to close.

On July 22, 2026, Max and Blake cover Starship Flight 13's T-0 abort, where four of thirty-three Raptor 3 engines failed to ignite, prompting SpaceX to swap two engines before a July 23 relaunch attempt.

The hosts break down the ignition physics behind the failure, the skipped in-space Raptor relight and its direct link to Artemis IV's 2028 crewed lunar landing timeline through HLS propellant transfer, and the market fallout after SpaceX stock closed below its IPO price for the first time. Max and Blake disagree on whether the engine issues represent routine hardware churn or a real reliability pattern, with Blake citing Techtimes reporting that Raptor 3 has less flight data under full pad loading than Raptor 2 had at the same stage. They also clash on how much risk Artemis IV should stack on an unflown relight test.

• Raptor 3 ignition failure and the engine-swap decision
• HLS orbital refueling chain and Artemis IV's 2028 target
• SPCX stock drop and political pressure on Starlink V3 delays

Both hosts lock in dated predictions for the July 23 relaunch. Listeners should watch whether the in-space relight succeeds and whether Raptor 3's engine-out pattern continues.