Year of the Ox, Year of the Vax

Narrated by: Dominic Silman, Data Strategist and Brian Klinksiek, Head of European Research and Global Portfolio Strategies

February 12th marks the beginning of the Year of the Ox in the Lunar Calendar. In Chinese culture, Oxen are known for diligence, dependability, and determination. These are traits we will all need to rely on in the coming months while vaccine deployment proceeds at an ox-like pace. As we enter February, the depths of winter in the northern hemisphere, the pandemic shadow is once again darkening much of Europe and North America, and a weary populace may be forgiven a dream of spring.

In economics, dreams like this are referred to as “rational expectations” since current views of future conditions underpin human behaviour in markets and society at large. Rational expectations theory plays an important role in understanding many macro-economic situations. How might this approach apply to the pandemic and epidemiological data? Although we are not experts in virology, we would like to share our analysis of pandemic data that points toward connections to economies and property markets.