The Transition from Acute to Chronic Stress

Three months after the Russian invasion of the Ukraine, the fighting and destruction continues. Our March macro deck focused on the ensuing volatility of equity markets, consumer prices and energy costs. In June, there is no sign of the conflict abating, volatility in the capital markets remains high, and energy costs continue to edge upward. As the situation in Ukraine transforms from an acute conflict into a chronic state of affairs, it joins a string of other global stress points that remain ongoing and without closure. Among them are: COVID-19, rising inflation, supply-chain blockages, climate change, and geo-political tensions that exist far beyond Eastern Europe.