Yield Curve - 2 and 10 yesr Treasury Notes & Bonds, when the yield curve inverts where returns on the short-term notes is greater then the returns of long-term treasuries. It has predicted every recession since 1970. Durable Goods Orders - large ticket items that are not necessities like automobiles, appliances, commercial jets. Are there reductions in purchases? Stock Market - measures the value of specific stocks and the overall market; stock price represents the firms expected earnings. Manufacuring Jobs - is an indicator of their confidence the economy is growing. Nobody wants to hire at the wrong time resulting in layoffs. Building Permits - confidence in market growth with about a 9 month lag. Very few builders build on spec, they look for high levels of certainty the demand will remain.