Transcript:President Donald Trump insists that America is winning its war against Iran, but a conservative commentator from The Bulwark is joining a larger chorus of protest from Trump’s own right-wing base . describing Trump’s war as “led by idiots and incompetents.”“The American military is now telling the New York Times that, far from collapsing, the Iranian regime is adapting to the Israeli–American onslaught and finding our weaknesses,” wrote Jonathan V. Last on Wednesday. Explaining that the Iranian government has long prepared for precisely the type of war being jointly waged by the United States and Israel, Last asked “how is it possible that the people in charge of running America’s war. by which I mean the commander-in-chief and his secretary of defense. could have misunderestimated Iran so completely?”Reflecting on reports that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convinced Trump that America would easily win the war once the Ayatollah is dead, Last wrote that “if it is true that the Israelis sold America a bill of goods and deluded American war planners into believing that killing the ayatollah would lead to regime collapse, then I don’t even know what to say.”Speaking with Axios earlier on Wednesday, Trump reiterated his claim that he could quickly wrap up the war."Little this and that. ... Any time I want it to end, it will end," Trump told Axios. "The war is going great. We are way ahead of the timetable. We have done more damage than we thought possible, even in the original six-week period."He emphasized that he can end the war "any time I want it” because after two weeks of military operations there is supposedly "practically nothing left to target." These were similar to comments Trump on Friday made at his Doral, Florida golf club, insisting that “the war is very complete, pretty much” because Iran has “no navy, no communications, they’ve got no air force.”Despite Trump’s confident assertions, the Iranian government has already replaced its previous supreme leader with his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, who may be even more hard-line than his father.“This man. the commander-in-chief. has no understanding of the war he is running,” Last wrote. “Iranian doctrine does not depend on maintaining a navy. It was specifically developed to survive a loss of communications. This Iranian regime has never placed any stock in possessing an air force.”Reviewing that America has no concept of how it will define victory while Iran “is absorbing punishment while accomplishing its strategic goals. exactly as its strategy was designed,” Last concluded that “this is what it means to be led by idiots and incompetents.”Last is not alone among conservatives in denouncing Trump’s Iran war. Podcaster Joe Rogan made similar points during the Tuesday episode of “The Joe Rogan Experience.”“Well, it just seems so insane, based on what he ran on. I mean, this is why a lot of people feel betrayed, right?” Rogan said on his podcast. “He ran on, ‘No more wars,’ ‘End these stupid, senseless wars,’ and then we have one that we can’t even really clearly define why we did it.”Similarly Megyn Kelly, normally a pro-Trump journalist, admitted shortly after the war began that she had “serious doubts” about what the White House is doing in Iran, while Kelly’s fellow conservative former Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene , Republican from Georgia speculated that Trump has gone insane.Our Analysis:Trump's War on Iran: A Quagmire of MisjudgmentThe Illusion of VictoryPresident Donald Trump's assurance that America is decisively winning its war against Iran is a masterclass in misinterpretation and hubris. Despite his boisterous claims, a growing chorus of conservative voices, including Jonathan V. Last from The Bulwark, is casting a shadow of doubt over Trump's overly simplistic and dangerously misguided narrative. Trump's assertion, as reported by Axios, that the war could end "any time I want it to" because "there is practically nothing left to target," is a stark illustration of his detachment from the complexities of modern warfare and the resilience of the Iranian regime.The Israeli MisdirectionThe involvement of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in convincing Trump of a quick victory post-Ayatollah's death is particularly troubling. It suggests a profound misunderstanding, or perhaps an underestimation, of the Iranian political and military strategy. This miscalculation, as Last points out, is not just a minor oversight but a fundamental blunder that could have far-reaching consequences for regional stability and the lives of countless individuals.A Strategy of ResilienceIran's swift replacement of its supreme leader with Mojtaba Khamenei, potentially a more hard-line figure, underscores the naivety of the American war strategy under Trump. The Iranian military doctrine, designed to withstand precisely the type of assault the U. S. and Israel have launched, does not hinge on conventional military strengths like a navy or air force. Trump's boastful dismissal of Iran’s military capabilities reveals a misunderstanding so profound it borders on the absurd.The Voices of ReasonIt’s noteworthy that the criticism isn't coming from Trump's usual detractors but from within his own ideological camp. Figures like Joe Rogan, Megyn Kelly, and even Marjorie Taylor Greene express disillusionment and concern over Trump's warpath. Their dissent signals a broader recognition of the war's flawed premises and the administration's departure from Trump's own campaign promises to end America's foreign military engagements.Conclusion: Led by Idiots and IncompetentsJonathan V. Last's scathing critique, branding the war's leadership as "led by idiots and incompetents," is more than a rhetorical jab. it's a distressing diagnosis of the current state of America's foreign policy strategy. The inability to define a clear endgame, coupled with a gross underestimation of Iran's strategic positioning, paints a picture of a war not on the brink of a triumphant conclusion but teetering on the edge of a protracted and potentially unwinnable conflict.As the dust settles and the realities of the war’s progress. or lack thereof. become clearer, one thing is unmistakably apparent: the gap between Trump's portrayal of an easily won war and the complex, grim reality on the ground is not just wide. it's a chasm. This dissonance not only undermines the credibility of the current administration but also raises serious questions about the long-term implications of its foreign policy misadventures.s

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit paulstsmith.substack.com