Sidequests

Let's Learn About the Thucydides Trap


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In the fifth century BC, Athens was rising. Wealthier, more powerful, more ambitious than it had ever been. And Sparta — the dominant military power for generations — was watching, and growing afraid.


What happened next gave us one of the most important ideas in the study of power and conflict: the Thucydides Trap. The historian Thucydides watched Athens and Sparta drag each other into a 27-year war that devastated the Greek world, and he asked not what triggered it, but what caused it. His answer was deceptively simple: it was the rise of Athens, and the fear that this instilled in Sparta.


Not aggression. Not ambition. Fear.


This week’s Sidequests unpacks the Thucydides Trap… for no reason in particular.


It’s the recurring pattern in which a rising power challenges an established one, fear takes hold on both sides, and the structure of rivalry pulls nations toward conflict that neither side necessarily wanted. The Peloponnesian War. Rome and Carthage. Britain and Germany before World War I. The same pattern, different centuries, similar outcomes. Two sides that both lost more than they could have gained by avoiding the fight.

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SidequestsBy Keith Conrad