In this episode, we welcome back YJ Lee from Arcane Capital Advisors. We discuss the current state of the lithium market, reviewing major trends, demand forecasts, and supply expectations. YJ provides an optimistic, bullish outlook on lithium amidst differing market opinions, attributing the expected rise in demand to various sectors including electric vehicles (EVs), battery energy storage (BESS), and newer applications such as electric ships, eVTOLs, and more. The episode delves into the possible impact of geopolitical factors and fiscal policies on lithium production and the renewable energy market. Additionally, insights are shared on investment strategies and stock selection in the lithium sector.

CHAPTERS 📖

(00:00:00) Introduction

(00:01:58) Supply vs. Demand: The Deficit Debate

(00:04:40) Arcane Capital’s Track Record and Strategy

(00:07:27) Impact of Clean Energy Trends on Lithium

(00:09:17) Green Energy Investment Cycles and Trump’s Policies

(00:13:50) Silver Demand Driven by Solar Expansion

(00:17:05) Limits of Thrifting in Silver and Lithium

(00:18:37) Technological Shifts: Solid-State Batteries

(00:19:35) Sodium-Ion Batteries: Challenges and Use Cases

(00:21:10) New Growth Areas: EV Ships and eVTOLs

(00:23:50) Understanding Battery Energy Storage Growth

(00:25:39) How Storage Translates to Lithium Demand

(00:26:27) Battery Storage Case Studies (Saudi, California, Australia)

(00:30:34) China’s Rapid Energy Storage Expansion

(00:31:18) AI, Data Centers, and Grid Storage in the U.S.

(00:33:49) Energy Cost Comparison: China vs. U.S.

(00:35:36) China’s Energy Dominance and Cost Curve

(00:38:08) Modeling Lithium Supply and Forecast Reductions

(00:41:05) Underestimating Demand Elasticity and EV Adoption

(00:43:23) U.S. and Europe: Policy vs. Price

(00:47:28) Commercial Fleets and EV Transition

(00:48:36) Addressing Supply Side Lag and CATL’s Moves

(00:53:46) Revisions in EV and Energy Storage Forecasts

(00:56:09) Massive Growth in E-Buses and Electric Trucks

(00:58:20) Emerging Demand: Electric Ships and Air Taxis

(01:00:16) Humanoid Robots and Defense Applications

(01:04:31) YJ’s 2025–2030 Lithium Demand Forecast

(01:05:25) The Scale of Demand Growth and Price Implications

(01:07:17) When Could the Lithium Price Turn Around?

(01:10:05) How Arcane Capital Is Positioning Its Portfolio

(01:10:38) High-Quality Lithium Assets and Diligence Approach

(01:14:17) Producers vs. Pre-Producers: Strategic Focus

(01:16:14) The Arcadium Deal and Rio Tinto’s Strategy

(01:17:24) Closing Remarks

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Links 🌍

RK Equity Website: https://rkequity.com/

Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/rockstockchannel

Podcast:

  Apple Podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/lithium-ion-rocks/id1457969172

  Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0KiMIZOPaDg8ENfPJMSINq?si=a4ca356c45394648

X (Twitter):

  Howard: https://twitter.com/LithiumIonBull

  Rodney: https://twitter.com/RodneyHooper13

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DISCLAIMER

NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH

Rodney and Howard are not financial advisors nor broker-dealers, this video is for information purposes only and should not be considered investment or financial advice. Please do your own independent research and read the disclaimer at the end of the video or on RK Equity’s website https://www.rkequity.com

Intro and outro audio credit: Jamie Klein