The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast held a live taping at The Bell House in Brooklyn on Wednesday night, its first return to a live venue in New York City since the pandemic. Nate Silver and Galen Druke dissect a recent poll suggesting 30 percent of New Yorkers want to leave the state, challenge ChatGPT to see if it can replace their jobs and discuss the current state of the 2024 Republican primary. They also welcome a surprise guest and an audience member to play a round of New York City-themed trivia.
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Live From New York: It's The FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast!

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It’s no secret that we are headed toward a presidential election that many Americans said they didn’t want. Somewhere in the range of 20 percent of Americans have an unfavorable view of both former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden, and if ratings are any indication, a lot of folks seem to be tuning campaign news out.
So what does this portend for turnout? We’ve been in an era of high-turnout elections since 2016, but will fatigue or disdain keep people home this fall? In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew debates what kind of turnout we should expect and why it matters. They also discuss why Biden and Trump decided to go forward with two earlier-than-usual debates.
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Are Americans Tuning Out The 2024 Election?

Concerns about democracy are central to the 2024 election. Late last year, Gallup recorded a record low number of Americans who said they are satisfied with the way democracy is working. And in the latest polling from The New York Times/Siena College, 14 percent of voters said the economic and political system needs to be torn down entirely, while 55 percent said it needs major changes.
To better understand how Americans are thinking about democracy heading into the election, 538 teamed up with PerryUndem, a nonpartisan research firm, to conduct focus groups with voters. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we hear from those voters. We also speak with Gretchen Helmke of Bright Line Watch, which conducts regular polling of experts and Americans on the potential threats to democracy.
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Why Voters Are Worried About Democracy, In Their Own Words

This is the second installment of the 538 Politics podcast mini-series, “Campaign Throwback.” Across three episodes, we're taking a look back at campaign tropes from past elections such as, “it’s the economy, stupid,” or “soccer moms” or that question about which candidate you’d rather share a beer with. We’ll ask where those tropes came from, whether they were actually true at the time and if they still hold up today.
In our second installment: "soccer moms." In 1992, Bill Clinton won the presidential election in what was called the "year of the woman" after a record number of women ran for office and won. As the 1996 election took shape, gender politics were still at the forefront of campaign coverage. As Clinton’s popularity was growing and Dole was lagging in the early polls, the idea took hold that “soccer moms” might either save Dole’s chances or ensure that Clinton made it over the edge. But when the election was all said and done, was that conventional wisdom correct?
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Campaign Throwback: 'Soccer Moms'

Three months ago, as the presidential primaries were getting underway, President Joe Biden was trailing former President Donald Trump in the polls nationally and in battleground states, and concerns about his age were coming to the fore. The optimistic view for Biden was that once the presidential primaries were over, and it became clear that the choice was a 2020 rematch, the polls would move in his direction. But the polls have changed little. In fact, a new set of battleground polls from The New York Times/Siena College shows Biden trailing in all but one of the battleground states, with a lead for Trump as high as 12 points in Nevada.
In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew asks why the end of the primaries, weeks of Biden campaigning and millions spent on advertising have changed the polls little. They also preview Tuesday's primaries in Maryland and West Virginia, in particular a very competitive Democratic Senate primary in Maryland.
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The Sun Belt Shifts Away From Biden

Six months out, how does the conventional wisdom about the 2024 election compare with how we are thinking about the numbers here at 538? Are election watchers thinking in a clear-eyed way about an election that will undoubtedly produce a lot of emotion and narratives?
Unfortunately we don’t have a conventional wisdom thermometer in the office, so in this installment of the 538 Politics podcast we put that wisdom to the test with a game of “Buy, Sell, Hold.” We look at where the betting markets place the likelihood of everything from former President Donald Trump picking South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem as his running mate to Democrats winning a Senate race in Ohio, and decide whether the odds are appropriately priced.
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