This was a fun, wide-ranging conversation with @Bernard Hickey from the excellent The Kākā newsletter on Substack - exploring underlying narratives behind this week's "2028 Global Intelligence Crisis" scenario piece from Citrini Research and how this might affect Aotearoa New Zealand.My fundamental thesis: there does appear to be a radical repricing of intelligence happening right now: from per-human-hour-worked to per-million-tokens. Yes, this may lead to massive white-collar job displacement and economic collapse, but there are plenty of avenues to be optimistic about as well...

Either way Aotearoa needs to get prepared for labour market disruption, sharpish, which doesn’t appear to be happening.

*One correction, early on I said that the original METR research found that task time horizon was doubling every “0.7 months” …. that should have been 7 months. The latest METR Time Horizons research can be found here: https://metr.org/time-horizons/

Thank you Andrew Leckie (SensorNex), Poetsday, and many others for tuning into my live video with Bernard Hickey! Should do this more often, eh!

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