Who are the hottest artists at auction in 2022 whose markets are likely to continue to rise in 2023? George O'Dell talks us through the trends that emerged from looking at more than 200 artists whose overall auction prices were well above the estimates. We identified six main trends: 1) strong demand for artists who are women; 2) revivals of forgotten or undervalued artists; 3) big names gaining value; 4) naive painters; 5) surrealists and their contemporary admirers; as well as demand for 6) a wide range of quirky Asian artists and historical Asian painters.

To identify these trends and the artists who drive them, we calculated the hammer ratios for all auction lots by artist. The hammer ratio is the final hammer price of all lots sold divided by the aggregate low estimate of all lots offered. If works don’t sell—an increasingly rare phenomenon these days—or sell below the estimates, the hammer ratio can fall below 1.00. Conversely, if works sell above the estimate range (a hammer ratio of 1.5 or above) and the artist has enough works offered during the year, we can get a sense that demand is at a higher level than sellers anticipated.

Then we removed any artist with fewer than 10 auction records, sorted by hammer ratio and looked at more than 200 artists whose work was bid above the estimates. From those 200, we could see the trends discussed here.