The Logic of Risk

LOR7: Probability as propensity


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In this episode, we move beyond the classical and frequentist definitions of probability to explore the propensity interpretation.
We examine how Peirce and Popper viewed probability as an objective tendency of random phenomena.
While this approach offers an interesting perspective, and it can be useful in fields like quantum mechanics, it also raises challenges, especially when dealing with single events. 
We also discuss historical bias and its impact on risk management and financial decision-making.

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The Logic of RiskBy Pasquale Cirillo