The tragic downing of the Azerbaijan Airlines plane can be theorized through a combination of geopolitical tensions, military operations, and miscommunication. Firstly, the timing and location of the incident are critical; if Russian air defense systems were on high alert due to reports of Ukrainian drone attacks nearby, the environment would be tense, increasing the likelihood of misidentification of aircraft. The heightened state of readiness could lead to impulsive decisions in a high-stress context.

Secondly, the political landscape complicates matters. Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan are allies of Russia, but any perceived threat from an aircraft might prompt a defensive posture from Russian forces. The relationship between Chechnya and the Kremlin also plays a role, as historical tensions and Kadyrov's strongman rule are tied to a broader narrative of control and authority.

Communication failures could have contributed significantly. If the plane was diverted due to an emergency, this might have limited the crew's ability to communicate clearly with air traffic control. A chaotic environment, particularly in conflict zones, can complicate air traffic management, leading to confusion and a lack of proper clearance.

Finally, outdated or malfunctioning technology in the air defense systems could have led to a misidentification of the civilian aircraft. If personnel were already on edge from recent conflicts, psychological stress could exacerbate their reactions, resulting in the tragic decision to engage the plane.