The U.S. is exporting more petroleum than it imports, with net exports hitting about 1.19 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2022, according to the latest annual figures from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Crude oil exports alone were around 3.58 million b/d, while imports sat at 6.28 million b/d—meaning the U.S. still brings in a lot of crude but offsets it with hefty exports of both crude and refined products like gasoline and diesel, totaling 9.52 million b/d in 2022. Fast forward to early 2025, and weekly data suggests crude exports are hovering around 3.29 million b/d (for the week of March 7), with net imports at a negative 2.08 million b/d—still a net exporter, though the balance fluctuates.

U.S. production has soared, hitting record highs above 13 million b/d recently, outpacing even Saudi Arabia and Russia. The lifting of the crude export ban in 2015 opened the floodgates, and now places like the Port of Corpus Christi are shipping out over 2 million b/d. Geopolitics plays a role too—sanctions on Russia and Venezuela have boosted demand for U.S. oil, especially in Europe, which took 1.8 million b/d in 2023.

Brent’s at $70/bbl right now, near a three-year low, which might squeeze profitability for U.S. exporters if it sticks. Posts on X echo this uncertainty: some say production’s flatlined since 2022, with exports stabilizing, while others point to record highs still being hit.

Permian’s been pumping out over 6 million b/d lately, and tech like better fracking and slower decline rates keeps it humming with fewer rigs. The EIA’s short-term outlook (as of March 2025) pegs total U.S. production at 13.2 million b/d for 2025, rising to 13.7 million b/d in 2026, so her numbers are in the ballpark. Net exports should keep growing if domestic demand stays flat at 20 million b/d—any extra barrels are headed overseas, likely pushing net exports past 2 million b/d by 2026.

February 2025 data shows U.S. exports to India spiking to 357,000 b/d—the highest in over two years. Tighter U.S. sanctions on Russian tankers and entities since late 2023 have disrupted that flow, pushing India to pivot back to U.S. suppliers like Occidental and Exxon. With India importing 85% of its 5 million b/d oil needs, and Russian crude still at 40% of that, the U.S. is clawing back market share.

With U.S. production at 13.2 million b/d and exports averaging 4.1 million b/d in 2023, South Korea’s share is a solid chunk—say, 15% of the total lately.

Brent crude will slide from $74/bbl in 2025 to $66/bbl in 2026, driven by global oversupply—non-OPEC growth (U.S., Canada, Brazil, Guyana) outpacing demand, maybe hitting 104 million b/d while use lags at 103.9 million b/d.

U.S. production’s still climbing—13.7 million b/d by 2026 per EIA—fueling exports to India (300,000-400,000 b/d), South Korea (600,000-700,000 b/d), and Europe (1.9-2 million b/d), pushing net exports toward 2.5 million b/d. But low prices squeeze margins, especially for shale producers focused on shareholder returns.

Gold prices should return to 2000 dollars an ounce. Historically, oil and gold correlate positively via inflation—rising oil jacks up prices, boosting gold as a hedge.