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The AI boom is not a bubble about to pop—it’s a fully loaded, sold-out freight train hauling gold at 100 mph, with every seat booked through mid-2026, no brakes, and a clear track ahead. That’s the simplest way to see why Michael Burry’s $1.1 billion put bet—his “crash insurance” on Nvidia and Palantir—will almost certainly expire worthless. He’s betting the train will derail hard and fast within 6–12 months. But this train isn’t running on hype or fake passengers like the 2008 housing market. It’s powered by real demand, real earnings, and real physics—and it’s not stopping.This is not 2008. Back then, banks were forced to lend trillions to people who couldn’t pay, using fake documents and 40-to-1 leverage. When the music stopped, 30% of homes sat empty, and the whole system collapsed. AI? The opposite. No one is forcing anyone to buy. Microsoft, Amazon, and Google are voluntarily spending $200 billion a year on Nvidia chips because every dollar in returns 3 to 7 times in profit through cloud AI services. Nvidia’s profit margin? 75% and rising—not the 22% homebuilders bragged about in 2006. Supply isn’t infinite—it’s hard-capped: only 35,000 advanced chips can be packaged per month at TSMC, and high-bandwidth memory is sold out 52 weeks ahead. That scarcity keeps prices sky-high—H100 chips sell for $40,000 each, four times cost. Utilization? 92% at CoreWeave, with nine-month backlogs. Once a company builds AI into its fraud detection or logistics, switching costs hit $50–100 million. This isn’t speculation—it’s lock-in. Even if growth slows, the train keeps generating cash for a decade. No foreclosure auctions. Just flip the breaker.Two massive tailwinds are pouring fuel on the engine: the Federal Reserve and Donald Trump. The Fed has cut rates twice in 2025, dropping the funds rate to 3.75–4%, with another 75 basis points expected by year-end. That makes $500 billion in data center projects 20–30% cheaper to finance, turning good returns into great ones. We’ve seen this before—cheap money after 2020 ignited the cloud boom. Now it’s AI’s turn. Meanwhile, Trump’s Day 1 Executive Order 14179 killed Biden’s AI red tape, and his “America’s AI Action Plan” fast-tracks permits, opens federal lands, and funds power grids to hit $1 trillion in U.S. compute by 2030. Tariffs protect American chipmakers, and a new task force will train 1 million AI workers. Together, this means 40% year-over-year growth in AI infrastructure, even with power constraints. Earnings reflect it: Palantir’s free cash flow margin hit 37%, and its growth-plus-margin score (“Rule of 70”) matches only the best hyperscalers. The train isn’t just moving—it’s accelerating.So when Michael Burry filed his $1.1 billion in put options—$187 million on Nvidia, $912 million on Palantir—he was betting the train would crash before the next station. He bought “crash insurance” that only pays if both stocks drop 30–50% fast. But here’s the problem: the train is on rails, fully loaded, and going faster every quarter. Nvidia just reported $30.8 billion in data center revenue in one quarter—up 112% year-over-year.
By David NishimotoThe AI boom is not a bubble about to pop—it’s a fully loaded, sold-out freight train hauling gold at 100 mph, with every seat booked through mid-2026, no brakes, and a clear track ahead. That’s the simplest way to see why Michael Burry’s $1.1 billion put bet—his “crash insurance” on Nvidia and Palantir—will almost certainly expire worthless. He’s betting the train will derail hard and fast within 6–12 months. But this train isn’t running on hype or fake passengers like the 2008 housing market. It’s powered by real demand, real earnings, and real physics—and it’s not stopping.This is not 2008. Back then, banks were forced to lend trillions to people who couldn’t pay, using fake documents and 40-to-1 leverage. When the music stopped, 30% of homes sat empty, and the whole system collapsed. AI? The opposite. No one is forcing anyone to buy. Microsoft, Amazon, and Google are voluntarily spending $200 billion a year on Nvidia chips because every dollar in returns 3 to 7 times in profit through cloud AI services. Nvidia’s profit margin? 75% and rising—not the 22% homebuilders bragged about in 2006. Supply isn’t infinite—it’s hard-capped: only 35,000 advanced chips can be packaged per month at TSMC, and high-bandwidth memory is sold out 52 weeks ahead. That scarcity keeps prices sky-high—H100 chips sell for $40,000 each, four times cost. Utilization? 92% at CoreWeave, with nine-month backlogs. Once a company builds AI into its fraud detection or logistics, switching costs hit $50–100 million. This isn’t speculation—it’s lock-in. Even if growth slows, the train keeps generating cash for a decade. No foreclosure auctions. Just flip the breaker.Two massive tailwinds are pouring fuel on the engine: the Federal Reserve and Donald Trump. The Fed has cut rates twice in 2025, dropping the funds rate to 3.75–4%, with another 75 basis points expected by year-end. That makes $500 billion in data center projects 20–30% cheaper to finance, turning good returns into great ones. We’ve seen this before—cheap money after 2020 ignited the cloud boom. Now it’s AI’s turn. Meanwhile, Trump’s Day 1 Executive Order 14179 killed Biden’s AI red tape, and his “America’s AI Action Plan” fast-tracks permits, opens federal lands, and funds power grids to hit $1 trillion in U.S. compute by 2030. Tariffs protect American chipmakers, and a new task force will train 1 million AI workers. Together, this means 40% year-over-year growth in AI infrastructure, even with power constraints. Earnings reflect it: Palantir’s free cash flow margin hit 37%, and its growth-plus-margin score (“Rule of 70”) matches only the best hyperscalers. The train isn’t just moving—it’s accelerating.So when Michael Burry filed his $1.1 billion in put options—$187 million on Nvidia, $912 million on Palantir—he was betting the train would crash before the next station. He bought “crash insurance” that only pays if both stocks drop 30–50% fast. But here’s the problem: the train is on rails, fully loaded, and going faster every quarter. Nvidia just reported $30.8 billion in data center revenue in one quarter—up 112% year-over-year.