In probability theory, the word ergodicity has a very precise meaning: it describes systems where, given enough time, the trajectory of a single element is statistically indistinguishable from the behavior of the whole system. In other words, if you wait long enough, one path through time will look like the average across all possible paths.

That sounds abstract, but here’s the kicker: most of the systems we live and work in are not ergodic. And the difference between ergodic and non-ergodic systems explains why so many ambitious people, organizations, and even nations fail to achieve their long-term goals.

Time vs. Ensemble

The best way to think about ergodicity is to distinguish between two types of averages:

* Ensemble average: What happens when you take a large number of possible outcomes at one point in time and average them?

* Time average: What happens when you follow one trajectory through time and average the results across its lifespan?

In an ergodic system, these two averages match. Flip a fair coin enough times, and the average of your flips (heads vs. tails) converges to the same 50/50 distribution you’d get if you flipped millions of coins once.

But in non-ergodic systems, the two diverge. What happens to the “average person” is not what happens to you over time. And here lies the trap: we often mistake ensemble averages for time averages.

Think of a friend who hears that “on average, startups raise millions.” That’s the ensemble average. But over time, one founder’s actual journey might include irreversible bankruptcy if they overextend too soon. The trajectory doesn’t match the average.

Why Survival is Everything

In non-ergodic systems, the key factor is irreversibility. Certain outcomes cannot be undone, and once they occur, they alter the trajectory forever. This makes the time average much harsher than the ensemble average suggests.

For example, consider personal health. You might think that “on average” you can push your body hard, skimp on sleep, and still bounce back. But if you suffer a serious injury or burnout, the trajectory changes permanently. You don’t get infinite retries; the damage carries forward.

This is why survival is not just a condition for performance; it is the overriding constraint of any long-term endeavor. The difference between systems that allow you to “bounce back” and systems where certain failures end the game is the difference between ergodic and non-ergodic thinking.

Part-Maven Part-Maverick is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Leadership For Non-Ergodicity

Leadership, too, must be grounded in ergodic awareness. When you are responsible for an organization, you’re not managing a static distribution of possibilities—you’re guiding a trajectory over time. Decisions that look costly in the moment may be essential because they prevent irreversible outcomes or because they compound cultural capital for the future.

Imagine a manager who refuses to compromise on ethical standards in order to land a big client. In the short term, revenue is lost. But in the long term, the organization builds a reputation for integrity that attracts better opportunities. That one “loss” prevents the irreversible outcome of reputational collapse and allows the trajectory of the company to keep improving.

What separates sustainable organizations from fragile ones is not quarterly performance but the ability to absorb shocks without collapsing. Leaders who understand non-ergodicity act accordingly: they trade off some immediate efficiency for resilience, signaling through their actions that the preservation of the game itself takes priority over maximizing this particular round.

The full conversation with Luca Dellanna:

Follow Luca Dellanna here:

https://luca-dellanna.com/

https://www.linkedin.com/in/dellannaluca/

https://substack.com/@lucadellanna

Thanks for reading Part-Maven Part-Maverick! This post is public so feel free to share it.

How I Apply This to my Life Right Now

Below is a summary of the key ideas that I am applying to my life.

Long-Term Games Demand Non-Ergodic Awareness

What does this mean in practice? It means that strategies optimized for short-term gains often collapse in the long run, because they ignore the absorbing nature of certain risks. Maximizing each individual step as if it were independent is an error; the outcomes accumulate, and some outcomes foreclose future opportunities.

To play a long-term game well, the goal is not to maximize every move but to construct a trajectory that remains viable over time. That requires:

* Risk reduction: not eliminating all uncertainty, but specifically reducing the kinds of risks that are irreversible. For instance, a career setback like missing a promotion can be temporary, but destroying your reputation through dishonesty can permanently close doors.

* Compounding assets: focusing on things that grow with time—skills, relationships, reputation, trust—because these allow your trajectory to keep improving without relying on a perfect sequence of short-term wins. Just as steady deposits into a retirement account build compounding wealth, daily learning or nurturing a professional network compounds into opportunities that short-term optimizers overlook.

* Temporal patience: giving problems and opportunities a horizon of months or years, not days, because longer timeframes allow for strategies that minimize irreversibility while still moving you forward. Training for a marathon, for example, works best when approached patiently over months; rushing risks injury that can set you back for years.

In short: long-term players think about the time average. Short-term players get seduced by ensemble averages.

Living in a Non-Ergodic World

Understanding ergodicity doesn’t mean we stop aiming high. It means we approach ambition differently. The central insight is that the fastest way to achieve your goals is not by trying to achieve them as fast as possible, but by ensuring you remain in the game long enough to reach them.

Non-ergodic awareness encourages us to:

* Treat health, safety, and trust as non-negotiables. Think of how prioritizing sleep and exercise isn’t about “losing” hours today, but about ensuring your body and mind can sustain decades of productivity.

* Invest steadily in capacities that accumulate over time. The person who reads a little each day or consistently practices a craft isn’t just learning—they’re compounding.

* Avoid irreversible risks, even when the odds look “favorable.” In personal finance, this means not betting your entire savings on a “sure thing.” In relationships, it means not sacrificing trust for a single win in an argument.

* Reframe success as endurance: not just achieving goals, but sustaining the ability to keep playing.

The mathematician might say: “In an ergodic world, time and ensemble are the same.” The strategist must say: “In the real, non-ergodic world, survival shapes destiny.”

That’s the paradox of long-term games: the true path to speed is patience, the true path to performance is resilience, and the true path to winning is making sure you don’t lose the ability to keep playing.

Thanks for reading Part-Maven Part-Maverick! This post is public so feel free to share it.

Next on Part-Maven Part-Maverick, we will speak about China in Apple with Patrick McGee, author of Apple in China.

Subscribe to be first to know when the episode drops: https://www.youtube.com/@SLASOG

For more of my thoughts, follow me on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/rritavan/

Get my book Data Impact for a pragmatic take on data-driven value creation for business:

https://www.slasog.com/scorecard

https://www.amazon.com/Data-Impact-businesses-LEVERAGE-SIMPLIFY/dp/178133921X

Part-Maven Part-Maverick is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit mavenmaverick.substack.com