Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Introducing bayescalc.io, published by Adele Lopez on July 7, 2023 on LessWrong.

I made a simple online calculator for doing elementary hypothesis testing!

I was disappointed that an intuitive and easy-to-use app for using bayes' theorem apparently did not exist, so I decided to make it. My goal was to make something that:

Helped people correctly and quickly evaluate the effect of evidence while comparing hypotheses.

Was easy enough for someone who didn't know math to use.

And which also helped show what the math was doing in an intuitive way, so that you didn't have to trust math you didn't understand.

Felt good enough to use that it would actually be used.

Could be used to share simple models of things in a way that would help people have more productive discussions, and promote shared model building.

Hopefully I've at least made substantial progress on these goals, and I'd really appreciate feedback on ways in which it falls short! This includes even minor interface or design issues. You can leave feedback as a comment here, or on the issues page.I'd also be really happy to see people share examples they've made in the comments!

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