Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: shortest goddamn bayes guide ever, published by lukehmiles on May 10, 2024 on LessWrong.

The thing to remember is that yeps and nopes never cross. The colon is a thick & rubbery barrier. Yep with yep and nope with nope.

bear : notbear =

1:100 odds to encounter a bear on a camping trip around here in general

* 20% a bear would scratch my tent : 50% a notbear would

* 10% a bear would flip my tent over : 1% a notbear would

* 95% a bear would look exactly like a fucking bear inside my tent : 1% a notbear would

* 0.01% chance a bear would eat me alive : 0.001% chance a notbear would

As you die you conclude 1*20*10*95*.01 : 100*50*1*1*.001 = 190 : 5 odds that a bear is eating you.

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