• Kevin opens with a story about a magician using a penny, a toilet paper cannon, and a leaf blower to create an “impossible” trick.
• How the trick actually worked: palming the coin, using the toilet seat and TP storm as cover, and revealing the penny with initials “magically” on his tongue.
• Parallel to real estate: what looks like magic from the outside is actually hours of practice, failed attempts, and a precise formula executed consistently.
• Steve connects the idea to spiritual habits: showing up at church, praying, and keeping commitments—over half of success is simply showing up and honoring your commitments.
• How Kevin and Steve reverse-engineered their own wins and failures into the Moneyball Real Estate system and principles.
• Why single-family rentals (SFRs) are surprisingly liquid when bought in the right markets, at the right prices, with the right structure.
• Ways to access liquidity from SFRs:
  • Selling into a large buyer pool
  • Refinancing
  • Using a HELOC
  • Cash flow over time
• Introduction of the “magic number”:
  • Input = total out-of-pocket investment
  • Output = total profit on sale after 10 years (the magic number)
  • Then converting that magic number into average annual ROI.
• Key expense-side numbers in the Moneyball analysis:
  • Purchase price
  • Loan amount
  • Monthly PITI (principal, interest, taxes, insurance)
  • Property management fees
  • Vacancies and repairs
• Key income-side and growth numbers:
  • Estimated monthly rent (data-driven from in-market managers)
  • Rent growth assumptions (around ~3% annually)
  • Multiple appreciation assumptions (3.5%, 5%, and “what if it’s higher?”)
• The Average Monthly Increase (AMI) as a favorite metric: turning a 10-year profit into a monthly “magic” benefit.
• Breaking down:
  • Monthly cash flow
  • Monthly principal reduction (tenants paying down your loan)
  • Monthly depreciation/tax savings
  • Combined into Monthly Combined Cash Increase.
• Why cap rate is included but not central to Moneyball-style decision making.
• The difference between:
  • Cash-on-cash return (just cash flow)
  • Combined cash-on-cash return (cash flow + principal paydown + tax savings).
• General rule-of-thumb targets for a purchase-worthy Moneyball property:
  • Combined cash-on-cash return in the high single digits
  • AMI over $700/month
  • Annualized total return over 13%
  • Total profit on sale over $100,000 after 10 years.
• Understanding P&L vs real performance:
  • Why properties can show a loss on paper but still produce strong positive cash flow.
  • The role of depreciation and amortized costs in creating tax losses.
• How DFY uses a hybrid statement to reconcile real cash flow with tax benefits.
• Emphasis on predictable, consistent, ethical investing:
  • Buying conservatively priced SFRs
  • Focusing on win–win deals for sellers, tenants, managers, and investors
  • Using 1031 exchanges and refinances to grow instead of cashing out and killing the goose.
• Closing idea: There’s no cheat code or secret shortcut—just a clear formula anyone can follow if they’re willing to be patient, disciplined, and ethical.

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