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Making Tough Decisions 7/10
Predicting the outcomes
Want to share feedback about the podcast? It would be much appreciated. 3 min survey here:
https://www.surveymonkey.co.uk/r/N72QP67
Before you can decide which option to take, you need to deal with the uncertainty surrounding each of them.
Unknowns can be categorised into 3 types:
1. Knowable unknowns - these are things you could know about but don’t. Hopefully you’ll have reduced these as much as you can by widening and diversifying your advisor group.
2. Inaccessible unknowns - these are things you’d know if you could get access them. For example, things a foe or a competitor might know - you can’t ask them because you’re competing with them.
3. Unknowable unknowns - these are things that are simply impossible to predict and which you just have to embrace.
There is a strong correlation between astute decision making and the willingness to embrace uncertainty and accept it as a given.
Your task for today is to try and adopt a humble mindset where you recognise that you can’t guarantee you know everything and embrace that. Then spend 5-10 minutes predicting the outcomes of your different options:
- What are their known implications, both direct and indirect?
- What are the upsides?
- What risks are there and what are their likelihoods of occurring?
View all episodes
By Benjamin FordPredicting the outcomes
Want to share feedback about the podcast? It would be much appreciated. 3 min survey here:
https://www.surveymonkey.co.uk/r/N72QP67
Before you can decide which option to take, you need to deal with the uncertainty surrounding each of them.
Unknowns can be categorised into 3 types:
1. Knowable unknowns - these are things you could know about but don’t. Hopefully you’ll have reduced these as much as you can by widening and diversifying your advisor group.
2. Inaccessible unknowns - these are things you’d know if you could get access them. For example, things a foe or a competitor might know - you can’t ask them because you’re competing with them.
3. Unknowable unknowns - these are things that are simply impossible to predict and which you just have to embrace.
There is a strong correlation between astute decision making and the willingness to embrace uncertainty and accept it as a given.
Your task for today is to try and adopt a humble mindset where you recognise that you can’t guarantee you know everything and embrace that. Then spend 5-10 minutes predicting the outcomes of your different options:
- What are their known implications, both direct and indirect?
- What are the upsides?
- What risks are there and what are their likelihoods of occurring?