Lewis Weiss hosts another Manufacturing Round Table with economist Cliff Waldman and Chris Kuehl to compare the January Federal Reserve industrial production release and the ISM report. After a year-long manufacturing slump, they point to improving signals: manufacturing within industrial production rose 0.8% month over month with broad-based gains, and the ISM index climbed to 52.7, moving above the 50 expansion threshold. The discussion widens to global uncertainty affecting supply chains, shifting trade patterns as China routes production through other countries, and concern that U.S. policy risks damaging critical trade and supply-chain ties with Canada. They also highlight workforce shortages, demographics,  and unclear ROI from rapid AI investment.

00:00 Welcome and Agenda

01:45 Why These Reports Matter

02:22 Fed and ISM Show Uptick

03:24 Caution and Tariff Drag

04:54 Capital Spending on Hold

07:11 Global Uncertainty and Supply Chains

10:02 China Trade Shifts and Workarounds

13:28 Canada Risks and North America

17:48 Looking Ahead to 2026

19:05 Workforce Shortage and AI Hype

21:02 Training Pipelines and Demographics

27:24 Financing Manufacturing Startups

28:42 Wrap Up and Final Takeaways

Reports:

January 2026 ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report: https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-pmi-reports/pmi/january/

January Federal Reserve Statistical Release: https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/current/g17.pdf

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