Russia’s incursion into Ukraine began in the early hours of February 24th and has progressed rapidly and violently every day since, showing that “frozen” conflicts can heat up quickly.  The gravity of the situation for Ukraine’s people and seriousness of the risks to the post-Cold War geopolitical order cannot be overlooked.  The geopolitical tremors of Russia’s action and the West’s sanctions are likely to be felt across the world for many years to come.  But direct implications for institutional real estate portfolios are relatively limited.  Rather, the key channels of influence on property markets are likely to be indirect and macroeconomic in nature.  These include higher inflation, “risk off” market sentiment, and accelerated changes in the European energy mix.

The March Macro Deck contains a summary of the rapidly evolving situation in Ukraine as well as other trends around the world.